# Rate-cut hopes fade in Brazil as Lula's reelection fans inflation fears

> Brazil's central bank held the benchmark rate at 13.75% and raised its inflation forecast, halting a run of cuts. Goldman Sachs now sees no cuts until at least the second quarter of 2028, while Lula's election win has pushed up long-term borrowing costs and weakened the real.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T21:08:10.704Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82407-rate-cut-hopes-fade-in-brazil-as-lula-s-reelection-fans-inflation-fears
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Prolonged high rates keep the real supported and sustain carry inflows, while fiscal and inflation worries weigh on the currency, shaping Brazil's export pricing for feed commodities.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-26 | [Brazil inflation accelerates as cenbank reiterates rate cut pace](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34321-brazil-inflation-accelerates-as-cenbank-reiterates-rate-cut-pace.md) | +2.3% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2022-12-07 | [Brazil Holds Key Rate at 13.75% as Lula’s Spending Plan Adds to Inflation Risk - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38433-brazil-holds-key-rate-at-13-75-as-lula-s-spending-plan-adds-to-inflation-risk.md) | +0.5% | +2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2025-02-03 | [Trump's tariffs raise fears Brazil's central bank is out of step on inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26256-trump-s-tariffs-raise-fears-brazil-s-central-bank-is-out-of-step-on-inflation.md) | -0.9% | +0.8% |
| USDBRL | 2021-08-25 | [USD/BRL Flat As Investors Brace for Rate Hikes Amid Higher Inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45758-usd-brl-flat-as-investors-brace-for-rate-hikes-amid-higher-inflation.md) | -2.6% | -0.1% |
| USDBRL | 2021-09-23 | [BoE sees growing case for rate rise as inflation to stay higher for longer \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45307-boe-sees-growing-case-for-rate-rise-as-inflation-to-stay-higher-for-longer.md) | +2.6% | +7.1% |

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/ratecut-hopes-fade-in-brazil-as-lulas-reelection-fans-inflation-fears-5005346
- streetinsider.com: https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Rate-cut+hopes+fade+in+Brazil+as+Lulas+reelection+fans+inflation+fears/27298456.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.