# Forecast of Russian wheat exports under stress scenario lowered to 39.5 million tonnes

> The Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR) cut its 2026/27 Russian total grain export forecast to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, and wheat exports to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million. At the same time it raised its stress-scenario estimates, to 36.5 million tonnes for grain and 30 million for wheat, as shipments continue to track the stress case.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T19:37:36.187Z
- Category: trade · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82338-forecast-of-russian-wheat-exports-under-stress-scenario-lowered-to-39-5-million
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A lower base forecast for Russian wheat exports tightens expected supply to world buyers and supports wheat prices, while the higher stress-case floor signals that the export pace is holding up better than the base case implied.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-30 | [Russian wheat export prices up - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45619-russian-wheat-export-prices-up-markets-business-recorder.md) | +0.2% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-07-30 | [Russian weekly wheat exports stable at 575,000 tonnes, YTD down 20% - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14284-russian-weekly-wheat-exports-stable-at-575-000-tonnes-ytd-down-20-fastmarkets.md) | +4.9% | -3.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-05-28 | [Wheat exports from Russia reach 170,000 tonnes weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14204-wheat-exports-from-russia-reach-170-000-tonnes-weekly.md) | +2.5% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2019-09-01 | [Ukraine Benefits from Slow Start to Russia’s Wheat Exports - Russia Business Today](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56934-ukraine-benefits-from-slow-start-to-russia-s-wheat-exports-russia-business-today.md) | -2.3% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-09-30 | [Russian wheat export prices rise on import demand - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22955-russian-wheat-export-prices-rise-on-import-demand-markets-business-recorder.md) | +0.4% | +5.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-05-16 | [Exclusive: India's surprise wheat export ban traps 1.8 million tonnes at ports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41433-exclusive-india-s-surprise-wheat-export-ban-traps-1-8-million-tonnes-at-ports.md) | 0.0% | -7.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-03-29 | [Wheat jumps after Russia says Cargill to stop grain exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5078-wheat-jumps-after-russia-says-cargill-to-stop-grain-exports.md) | 0.0% | -9.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-09-23 | [Taiwan buys 91,300 tonnes wheat of US-origin - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51176-taiwan-buys-91-300-tonnes-wheat-of-us-origin-markets-business-recorder.md) | -3.2% | +16.1% |

## Sources

- tksrus.ru: https://tksrus.ru/news/nearby/2026/11/05/0001/prognoz-eksporta-rossijskoj-pshenitsyi-po-stressovomu-stsenariyu-snizili-do-39-5-mln-tonn/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.