# Inflation Expectations Fell With Oil. The Fed Officials Who Wanted a Hike Have Not Moved, and a December Hike Still Trades Near 80% on Kalshi

> Brent settled down 8.7% at $94.62, its lowest since August 31, pulling one-year US inflation swaps down to about 2.1% from 2.7% a week earlier. The two-year Treasury yield hit a two-month low, yet hiring data beat forecasts and markets still price a likely December Fed hike.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T15:13:37.019Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82015-inflation-expectations-fell-with-oil-the-fed-officials-who-wanted-a-hike-have
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower oil and inflation expectations ease energy and fertilizer cost pressure on feed, but a likely Fed hike keeps the dollar supported and borrowing costs high for feed-chain financing.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-06-01 | [Oil falls as higher OPEC+ output expectations weigh on sentiment](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24838-oil-falls-as-higher-opec-output-expectations-weigh-on-sentiment.md) | +4.9% | +7.0% |
| BRENT | 2022-06-23 | [Oil prices slump as investors fear Fed rate hikes will hurt demand \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41110-oil-prices-slump-as-investors-fear-fed-rate-hikes-will-hurt-demand-reuters.md) | +4.3% | -2.0% |
| BRENT | 2020-06-11 | [Oil drops more than 8% as fears over second wave of coronavirus cases hit the market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52783-oil-drops-more-than-8-as-fears-over-second-wave-of-coronavirus-cases-hit-the.md) | -2.1% | +4.9% |
| BRENT | 2023-12-12 | [U.S. crude oil falls more than 3% on inflation worries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32888-u-s-crude-oil-falls-more-than-3-on-inflation-worries.md) | +3.3% | +2.3% |
| BRENT | 2023-03-14 | [Oil falls to three-month low on inflation worries, U.S. bank shutdowns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37044-oil-falls-to-three-month-low-on-inflation-worries-u-s-bank-shutdowns.md) | -8.9% | +7.8% |
| WTI | 2025-06-01 | [Oil falls as higher OPEC+ output expectations weigh on sentiment](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24838-oil-falls-as-higher-opec-output-expectations-weigh-on-sentiment.md) | +6.2% | +7.6% |
| WTI | 2019-05-02 | [WEAK INFLATION ISN'T TRANSITORY -- COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE -- A RISING DOLLAR IS ONE REASON WHY -- STOCKS REACT BADLY TO LESS DOVISH FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR -- CRUDE OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58995-weak-inflation-isn-t-transitory-commodity-prices-have-been-falling-for-a-decade.md) | -2.3% | -7.5% |
| WTI | 2022-06-13 | [ASX down nearly 4 per cent after Wall Street sell-off on inflation fears, S&P 500 falls into bear market - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41207-asx-down-nearly-4-per-cent-after-wall-street-sell-off-on-inflation-fears-s-and.md) | -9.2% | -19.6% |

## Sources

- financialmarkets.com: https://www.financialmarkets.com/article/inflation-expectations-fell-with-oil-the-fed-officials-who-wanted-a-hike-have-no

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.