# Oil market shifts to surplus despite disruptions

> JPMorgan estimated global crude supply exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels a day last month, as Middle Eastern exports returned to prewar levels. HSBC expects Saudi output to rise in the fourth quarter, and Latin American output has grown sharply.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T15:13:30.297Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82013-oil-market-shifts-to-surplus-despite-disruptions
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A shift to surplus, with crude down about 20% from this year's peak, weighs on oil prices. Lower energy costs reduce biofuel and transport costs, which pressures vegetable oil and related feed inputs.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2017-11-01 | [IEA: Warmer weather may tilt oil market into surplus as demand slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68145-iea-warmer-weather-may-tilt-oil-market-into-surplus-as-demand-slows.md) | +4.3% | +3.6% |
| BRENT | 2022-07-31 | [Arab News \| Oil market shift to be marginally less tight](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40648-arab-news-oil-market-shift-to-be-marginally-less-tight.md) | -11.9% | -8.8% |
| BRENT | 2023-04-27 | [Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC+](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36572-oil-market-has-absorbed-surprise-production-cut-by-opec.md) | -7.4% | -0.3% |
| BRENT | 2017-06-29 | [Oil market needs deeper OPEC cuts to rebalance – Goldman Sachs — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70657-oil-market-needs-deeper-opec-cuts-to-rebalance-goldman-sachs-octa.md) | +1.7% | +7.8% |
| BRENT | 2024-10-15 | [Oil plunges 4% as Iran supply disruption concerns ease, demand outlook weakens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28029-oil-plunges-4-as-iran-supply-disruption-concerns-ease-demand-outlook-weakens.md) | -5.4% | -7.6% |
| WTI | 2017-11-01 | [IEA: Warmer weather may tilt oil market into surplus as demand slows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68145-iea-warmer-weather-may-tilt-oil-market-into-surplus-as-demand-slows.md) | +5.2% | +5.3% |
| WTI | 2022-07-31 | [Arab News \| Oil market shift to be marginally less tight](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40648-arab-news-oil-market-shift-to-be-marginally-less-tight.md) | -9.5% | -6.9% |
| WTI | 2023-11-07 | [Canadian dollar weakens despite wider trade surplus - The Globe and Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33410-canadian-dollar-weakens-despite-wider-trade-surplus-the-globe-and-mail.md) | -3.2% | -11.3% |

## Sources

- semafor.com: https://www.semafor.com/article/11/05/2026/oil-market-shifts-to-supply-surplus-despite-months-of-war-disruption

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.