# ИКАР повысил оценку экспортного потенциала зерна в стрессовом сценарии

> The Institute of Agrarian Market Conditions (IKAR) cut its 2026/27 Russian total grain export forecast from 52.8 to 49.5 million tonnes, and wheat from 42 to 39.5 million tonnes. Under its stress scenario, however, it raised the total grain export estimate to 36.5 million tonnes and wheat to 30 million tonnes. Russian wheat exports reached 2.9 million tonnes in October, the highest monthly figure of the season.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T15:12:36.720Z
- Category: report · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/82003
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Russian export volumes remain well below normal levels, keeping global wheat supply tighter and supporting prices, though steady growth from Baltic ports partly offsets Black Sea disruption.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10792-usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-since-1972-due-to-plains-drought-agweb.md) | +2.0% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-30 | [U.S. grains: Wheat futures surge as supplies drop to 14-year low - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11320-u-s-grains-wheat-futures-surge-as-supplies-drop-to-14-year-low-grainews.md) | +5.6% | +8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-14 | [Canada cuts canola, wheat estimates further due to drought](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45044-canada-cuts-canola-wheat-estimates-further-due-to-drought.md) | -3.3% | +4.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-01-12 | [USDA Releases January Crop Production, WASDE, Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat Seedings Reports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13308-usda-releases-january-crop-production-wasde-grain-stocks-winter-wheat-seedings.md) | -0.6% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2021-10-12 | [USDA officials increase soybean, corn yield estimates \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44382-usda-officials-increase-soybean-corn-yield-estimates-agri-pulse-communications.md) | +0.7% | +8.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-12 | [USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10792-usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-since-1972-due-to-plains-drought-agweb.md) | +4.5% | -6.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-09-30 | [U.S. grains: Wheat futures surge as supplies drop to 14-year low - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11320-u-s-grains-wheat-futures-surge-as-supplies-drop-to-14-year-low-grainews.md) | +4.7% | +10.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-05-12 | [Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35885-lower-than-expected-winter-wheat-production-sends-kc-wheat-futures-soaring.md) | -3.9% | -10.5% |

## Sources

- agroinvestor.ru: https://www.agroinvestor.ru/analytics/news/46778-ikar-povysil-otsenku-eksportnogo-potentsiala-zerna-v-stressovom-stsenarii/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.