# El Niño Brings Climate Contrasts from North to South Brazil; Excess Rain Hurts Grains and Cane While Drought Threatens Brazil Nuts

> El Niño is causing contrasting weather across Brazil, with excess rain hurting winter grains and sugarcane in the Center-South. Paraná's total winter grain output is forecast to fall 28% from 2025, with wheat down 34% to 1.9 million tonnes. Drought is threatening Amazon Brazil nut production.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-05T15:12:25.782Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81997-el-nino-brings-climate-contrasts-from-north-to-south-brazil-excess-rain-hurts
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A 34% drop in Paraná wheat output tightens Brazilian wheat supply and supports prices, with quality losses limiting supply to bakers. Barley losses add to the pressure.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-10 | [Drought Grows South, Rain Helping Northward Through Next Week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12964-drought-grows-south-rain-helping-northward-through-next-week.md) | -0.9% | -3.8% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-23 | [Drought and cold decimate EU grain harvest - Wheat harvest above average \| Boerenbusiness. Nl](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70951-drought-and-cold-decimate-eu-grain-harvest-wheat-harvest-above-average.md) | +0.0% | -0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-05-16 | ['Flash droughts' are Midwest's next big climate threat \| Grist](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13365-flash-droughts-are-midwest-s-next-big-climate-threat-grist.md) | +4.0% | -0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +1.4% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-05 | [El Nino developing as Western Canada recovers from drought - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61973-el-nino-developing-as-western-canada-recovers-from-drought-grainews.md) | -4.2% | -3.1% |
| SOY | 2022-12-26 | [Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13679-brazil-soybeans-benefit-from-rain-north-hurt-by-dryness-far-south.md) | +0.6% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2025-12-05 | [Heavy rains improve central Brazil soil moisture but drought fears grow in southern South America](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13457-heavy-rains-improve-central-brazil-soil-moisture-but-drought-fears-grow-in.md) | -2.3% | -6.5% |
| SOY | 2022-12-19 | [Drought hits Brazil corn in key southern state – StoneX](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13681-drought-hits-brazil-corn-in-key-southern-state-stonex.md) | -0.1% | +3.0% |

## Sources

- gazetadevarginha.com.br: https://www.gazetadevarginha.com.br/post/el-ni%C3%B1o-traz-contrastes-clim%C3%A1ticos-de-norte-a-sul-do-brasil-excesso-de-chuva-prejudica-gr%C3%A3os-e-cana

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.