# Russia wheat export forecast cut to 39.5 million tonnes

> IKAR reduced its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tonnes. Chicago wheat futures firmed on fading expectations for larger Russian shipments, while Russian export prices have eased and Kazakhstan has raised its wheat exports by 15%.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T12:11:45.756Z
- Category: report · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81683-russia-wheat-export-forecast-cut-to-39-5-million-tonnes
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Russia is the most important swing supplier in world wheat trade, so a smaller export outlook tightens Black Sea availability and can lift global wheat futures and importer procurement costs, though Kazakh supply offsets part of the gap.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-13 | [European soft wheat production forecast at 134.5 million tonnes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29700-european-soft-wheat-production-forecast-at-134-5-million-tonnes.md) | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-30 | [Russian 2026/27 Wheat Export Forecast Cut by 4.7 MMT - The Sizov Report blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14084-russian-2026-27-wheat-export-forecast-cut-by-4-7-mmt-the-sizov-report-blog.md) | -2.5% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-24 | [Australian 2017 wheat crop forecast to reach 24 million tonnes: USDA report - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71469-australian-2017-wheat-crop-forecast-to-reach-24-million-tonnes-usda-report.md) | +2.4% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-21 | [The forecast for the soft wheat harvest in France has been reduced to 30.8 million tons.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18285-the-forecast-for-the-soft-wheat-harvest-in-france-has-been-reduced-to-30-8.md) | -1.8% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-11 | [Australian wheat export forecast cut, imports tripled: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55534-australian-wheat-export-forecast-cut-imports-tripled-wasde-grain-central.md) | +2.6% | +4.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-12-11 | [Australian wheat export forecast cut, imports tripled: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55534-australian-wheat-export-forecast-cut-imports-tripled-wasde-grain-central.md) | +12.3% | +17.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-07-30 | [A new decline in crop forecasts for the US, Canada and Russia continued to raise wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46103-a-new-decline-in-crop-forecasts-for-the-us-canada-and-russia-continued-to-raise.md) | +2.5% | +6.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-10-24 | [Canada lifts grain price forecasts, as it upgrades wheat export hopes - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39181-canada-lifts-grain-price-forecasts-as-it-upgrades-wheat-export-hopes-grain.md) | -2.5% | -1.5% |

## Sources

- adalytica.com: https://adalytica.com/news/russia-wheat-export-forecast-cut-c2ba7ba7

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.