# Rice just hit a two-year high. One signal decides it - and why the obvious trade is a trap

> Thai 5% broken white rice, the global benchmark, reached nearly $499 a ton, its highest since December 2024. An El Niño-linked weak monsoon in India is pressuring the main kharif crop, though India's overall harvest is still projected near a record.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T09:15:06.192Z
- Category: weather · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81559-rice-just-hit-a-two-year-high-one-signal-decides-it-and-why-the-obvious-trade
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

India supplies about 40% of global rice exports, so monsoon stress and a possible reimposition of broken-rice export curbs could tighten supply further and keep prices elevated for feed and food buyers.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-09-11 | [Indian rice export prices hit one-year high amid supply concerns - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17447-indian-rice-export-prices-hit-one-year-high-amid-supply-concerns-the.md) | +1.0% | +7.8% |
| RICE | 2020-03-30 | [Rice prices hit 6-year high as Thailand and Vietnam face drought - Nikkei Asia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54207-rice-prices-hit-6-year-high-as-thailand-and-vietnam-face-drought-nikkei-asia.md) | +4.2% | +21.5% |
| RICE | 2023-07-11 | [Rice Soars to Two-Year High in Asia on El Niño Drought Risks - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5208-rice-soars-to-two-year-high-in-asia-on-el-nino-drought-risks-bloomberg.md) | -19.6% | -16.6% |
| RICE | 2025-12-02 | [Thai Rice Prices hit near 4-month high; India prices ease on weak demand, soft rupee \| IREF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12732-thai-rice-prices-hit-near-4-month-high-india-prices-ease-on-weak-demand-soft.md) | -0.3% | -6.8% |
| RICE | 2026-10-22 | [Asia rice: Indian prices hit more than one-year high on strong rupee, tight supply - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17169-asia-rice-indian-prices-hit-more-than-one-year-high-on-strong-rupee-tight.md) | -0.4% | — |

## Sources

- ainvest.com: https://www.ainvest.com/news/rice-hit-year-high-signal-decides-obvious-trade-trap-2611/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.