# EU: sharp drop in cereal production expected; oilseeds also decline

> The European Commission's outlook estimates EU cereal production in 2026/27 at 262 million tonnes, down 9.6% from the previous year and 4.7% below the five-year average. Extreme heat and severe drought in key producing regions hit summer crops, with maize the most affected, while oilseeds have shown resilience.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T09:14:51.526Z
- Category: weather · region EU · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81558-eu-sharp-drop-in-cereal-production-expected-oilseeds-also-decline
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp EU cereal shortfall tightens feed grain supply and supports prices for corn and barley, raising import demand from outside the bloc. Oilseed resilience limits the pass-through to meal prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-02-07 | [Ukraine's Grain Exports Plummet 26% Sharp Production Decline \| Paradigm Futures](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14230-ukraine-s-grain-exports-plummet-26-sharp-production-decline-paradigm-futures.md) | +1.5% | -6.3% |
| CORN | 2021-06-09 | [Brazil Declares First Drought Alert in a Century: Weighs on Crop Production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46413-brazil-declares-first-drought-alert-in-a-century-weighs-on-crop-production.md) | -1.4% | -1.4% |
| CORN | 2024-01-04 | [Lower Brazilian crop production estimates expected - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13601-lower-brazilian-crop-production-estimates-expected-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -1.1% | -2.1% |
| CORN | 2026-05-11 | [The second corn crop 2025/26 will have an increase in area, but production is expected to fall by almost 10% in Brazil.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13437-the-second-corn-crop-2025-26-will-have-an-increase-in-area-but-production-is.md) | +1.4% | -5.6% |
| CORN | 2024-04-23 | [FAO/GIEWS Special Alert No. 352: Southern Africa El Niño-linked drought to cause cereal production declines and spur a surge in import needs, 23 April 2024 - Mozambique \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30654-fao-giews-special-alert-no-352-southern-africa-el-nino-linked-drought-to-cause.md) | -0.1% | +4.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-30 | [Australian wheat prices improve as expected production declines. \| Farm Weekly \| WA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34522-australian-wheat-prices-improve-as-expected-production-declines-farm-weekly-wa.md) | +0.2% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-07-02 | [Cereal production in EU forecast to fall by 6% in 2018 \| AGENCE EUROPE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63982-cereal-production-in-eu-forecast-to-fall-by-6-in-2018-agence-europe.md) | -5.5% | -1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-28 | [Australia forecasts 34% decline in wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35012-australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production.md) | -0.1% | -2.1% |

## Sources

- 3tres3.com: https://www.3tres3.com/pt/print/18718

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.