# DA braces for full impact of El Niño on rice output

> The Philippine Department of Agriculture expects El Niño to hit rice production more severely in the first half of 2027. Local palay output is projected to fall 5% to 18.67 million tonnes from 2025 levels, and this year's output could drop below 18 million tonnes for the first time since 2012.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-05T09:14:23.737Z
- Category: weather · region Philippines · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81551-da-braces-for-full-impact-of-el-nino-on-rice-output
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp fall in Philippine output increases import demand from Vietnam and other exporters, supporting regional rice prices. Higher fertilizer and fuel costs are also cutting planted area.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2023-10-11 | [Asia Rice Market Braces for More Stress From El Niño After Export Curbs - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33694-asia-rice-market-braces-for-more-stress-from-el-nino-after-export-curbs.md) | -0.1% | +2.8% |
| RICE | 2023-04-17 | [DA assures stable rice supply amid El Niño threat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36490-da-assures-stable-rice-supply-amid-el-nino-threat.md) | -2.7% | +5.1% |
| RICE | 2023-06-19 | [Rice prices surge in Vietnam amid supply concerns and El Nino impact \| FEAG](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8291-rice-prices-surge-in-vietnam-amid-supply-concerns-and-el-nino-impact-feag.md) | +0.8% | -12.5% |
| RICE | 2023-08-02 | [Rice prices soar on back of India’s export ban](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12039-rice-prices-soar-on-back-of-india-s-export-ban.md) | +0.3% | +4.4% |
| RICE | 2026-06-28 | [Vietnam rice rates up on El Nino fears; buyers opt for cheaper Indian grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18869-vietnam-rice-rates-up-on-el-nino-fears-buyers-opt-for-cheaper-indian-grain.md) | -2.3% | +4.2% |

## Sources

- business.inquirer.net: https://business.inquirer.net/619572/da-braces-for-full-impact-of-el-nino-on-rice-output

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.