# Stable dollar: analysts warn of risks, but the government has a different diagnosis

> The Brazilian real fell 9.15% after Lula da Silva won the presidential election, while the Argentine peso depreciated only about 1.5% over the same period. The central bank and Treasury intervened to contain the peso's movement. Analysts expect this gap to be unsustainable, while the government disagrees.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T09:10:57.547Z
- Category: macro · region South America · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81502-stable-dollar-analysts-warn-of-risks-but-the-government-has-a-different
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Argentine Peso (ARS per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDARS.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal cheaper for export buyers, which pressures world prices. Argentina's peso policy also affects the competitiveness of its soy and corn exports.

## Read by commodity

- USDARS: bullish ▲
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-03-29 | [BCB remains on a collision course with the government, BRL at risk – Commerzbank: Analytics and Market news from 29 March 2023 13:55](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37064-bcb-remains-on-a-collision-course-with-the-government-brl-at-risk-commerzbank.md) | -1.5% | -2.1% |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-23 | [Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28517-dollar-rises-more-than-1-at-the-start-of-a-week-marked-by-inflation-data-in.md) | -1.1% | +3.9% |
| USDBRL | 2022-02-24 | [Analysis: War shuffles moves of central banks in Brazil, abroad](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42916-analysis-war-shuffles-moves-of-central-banks-in-brazil-abroad.md) | +2.7% | -3.4% |
| USDBRL | 2023-01-09 | [Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37982-brazil-s-real-weakens-following-attacks-on-government-buildings.md) | -3.0% | -1.0% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-08 | [Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34010-why-the-us-fed-s-interest-rate-pause-is-a-win-for-dollar-bulls-the-national.md) | -2.2% | +4.1% |

## Sources

- tn.com.ar: https://tn.com.ar/economia/2026/11/05/la-devaluacion-del-real-reaviva-el-debate-por-el-dolar-las-advertencias-de-los-analistas-y-la-respuesta-del-gobierno/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.