# Sunflower may rise by $50–70/t: how much plants will process and what will happen to oil exports. Season forecasts

> Ukrainian oil shipments from Greater Odesa ports have fallen to a few tankers per month, and rail lacks food-grade tank cars. Industry participants at the Fat & Oil Industry 2026 conference said the government has given vegetable oil transport priority, though opinions differ on whether this will help without a recovery in sea exports.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T09:07:02.701Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81435-sunflower-may-rise-by-50-70-t-how-much-plants-will-process-and-what-will-happen
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced sea-borne exports of Ukrainian oil and meal, which carry about 75% of sunflower oil volumes by sea, tighten global sunflower oil supply and support prices. Limited improvement from the transport priority means sunflower seed prices may firm.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SBO: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2022-11-24 | [Sunflower prices in Ukraine are increasing against the backdrop of increased export of seeds and processed products](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38793-sunflower-prices-in-ukraine-are-increasing-against-the-backdrop-of-increased.md) | -3.3% | -10.2% |
| SBO | 2026-01-27 | [Ukraine Sees Record Sunflower Prices Amid Power Outages and Export Market Shifts \| Tridge Insights](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12811-ukraine-sees-record-sunflower-prices-amid-power-outages-and-export-market.md) | -0.9% | +7.7% |
| SBO | 2021-09-28 | [Argentine exports of soy and oil products down $620 mi due to low water level on Paraná River - DatamarNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44929-argentine-exports-of-soy-and-oil-products-down-620-mi-due-to-low-water-level-on.md) | +0.7% | +8.1% |
| SBO | 2026-01-26 | [Ukraine sunflower prices rise sharply amid higher sunflower oil prices - APK-Inform](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12810-ukraine-sunflower-prices-rise-sharply-amid-higher-sunflower-oil-prices-apk.md) | +2.1% | +8.2% |
| SBO | 2025-03-12 | [March WASDE reduces forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production  \| Biomass Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25672-march-wasde-reduces-forecast-for-2024-25-soybean-oil-use-in-biofuel-production.md) | +1.6% | +7.9% |
| SBM | 2023-02-27 | [Ukrainian sunflower meal exports to the EU higher than last season-27.02.2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37432-ukrainian-sunflower-meal-exports-to-the-eu-higher-than-last-season-27-02-2023.md) | -0.4% | -9.6% |
| SBM | 2021-09-28 | [Argentine exports of soy and oil products down $620 mi due to low water level on Paraná River - DatamarNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44929-argentine-exports-of-soy-and-oil-products-down-620-mi-due-to-low-water-level-on.md) | -4.2% | -2.8% |
| SBM | 2025-03-12 | [March WASDE reduces forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production  \| Biomass Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25672-march-wasde-reduces-forecast-for-2024-25-soybean-oil-use-in-biofuel-production.md) | +1.6% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- latifundist.com: https://latifundist.com/reportazhy/205-sonyashnik-mozhe-podorozhchati-na-5070-t-skilki-pereroblyat-zavodi-ta-shcho-bude-z-eksportom-oliyi-prognozi-na-sezon

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.