# Grain harvest largest since 2021, but corn exports to fall 54%: USDA forecast

> USDA's Kyiv office forecasts Ukraine's end-of-season 2026/27 grain carry-out could reach a record 36.1 million tonnes, with corn stocks near 20 million tonnes. Production estimates rose to the highest since 2021/22, while corn exports are projected to fall to 10.2 million tonnes from 22.2 million, mainly due to Black Sea port restrictions.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T07:37:39.703Z
- Category: report · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81392-grain-harvest-largest-since-2021-but-corn-exports-to-fall-54-usda-forecast
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Large Ukrainian stockpiles combined with a sharp drop in export capacity keep Black Sea grain offers heavily pressured, supporting cheaper feed grain supplies in the short term while logistics remain the binding constraint.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2021-12-13 | [USDA experts raised their forecast for Black Sea grain crop and exports 13.12.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14520-usda-experts-raised-their-forecast-for-black-sea-grain-crop-and-exports-13-12.md) | -0.1% | +0.8% |
| CORN | 2025-02-27 | [USDA Forecasts Record Corn Crop, Larger Soybean Crop for 2025-26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13114-usda-forecasts-record-corn-crop-larger-soybean-crop-for-2025-26.md) | -5.3% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2023-05-23 | [USDA forecasts record-large corn, soy production in 2023 \| Food Business News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13277-usda-forecasts-record-large-corn-soy-production-in-2023-food-business-news.md) | -1.8% | +0.2% |
| CORN | 2019-10-01 | [USDA Expects Farmers to Harvest 13.8 Billion Bushels of Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56416-usda-expects-farmers-to-harvest-13-8-billion-bushels-of-corn.md) | +1.5% | -0.6% |
| CORN | 2025-07-11 | [Brazil raises forecast for record grain harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13484-brazil-raises-forecast-for-record-grain-harvest.md) | -0.7% | -1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2025-08-11 | [France raises wheat harvest forecast but expects corn production to decline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23272-france-raises-wheat-harvest-forecast-but-expects-corn-production-to-decline.md) | -1.0% | +0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2021-12-13 | [USDA experts raised their forecast for Black Sea grain crop and exports 13.12.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14520-usda-experts-raised-their-forecast-for-black-sea-grain-crop-and-exports-13-12.md) | -6.0% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-02-27 | [USDA Forecasts Record Corn Crop, Larger Soybean Crop for 2025-26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13114-usda-forecasts-record-corn-crop-larger-soybean-crop-for-2025-26.md) | -4.3% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- ukr.net: https://www.ukr.net/news/details/economics/120350399.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.