# Very strong El Niño threatens farm output, water supply nationwide - BusinessWorld Online

> The Philippine weather bureau PAGASA said a very strong El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures about 2.5°C above normal from August to October. It is expected to peak before the end of 2026 and persist into the first quarter of 2027. As of October 31, five provinces were in meteorological drought and 21 more were in dry-spell or dry conditions.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-05T06:12:56.082Z
- Category: weather · region Philippines · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81225-very-strong-el-nino-threatens-farm-output-water-supply-nationwide-businessworld
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Prolonged dry spells and drought in the Philippines and across Southeast Asia threaten rice and corn yields and raise the chance of import demand. This supports higher regional rice and feed grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2019-04-26 | [El Niño crop damage climbs to P7.96 billion - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59514-el-nino-crop-damage-climbs-to-p7-96-billion-businessworld-online.md) | +2.5% | +13.7% |
| RICE | 2025-01-26 | [Agricultural output may have contracted in 2024 - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16029-agricultural-output-may-have-contracted-in-2024-businessworld-online.md) | -5.7% | -8.4% |
| RICE | 2023-09-07 | [‘Major disruptor’: El Niño threatens the world’s rice supplies \| Global development \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34004-major-disruptor-el-nino-threatens-the-world-s-rice-supplies-global-development.md) | -3.8% | -6.6% |
| RICE | 2023-04-17 | [DA assures stable rice supply amid El Niño threat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36490-da-assures-stable-rice-supply-amid-el-nino-threat.md) | -2.7% | +5.1% |
| RICE | 2026-04-24 | [Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19633-forecast-for-strong-el-nino-fans-worries-about-global-crops.md) | -2.0% | +18.1% |
| CORN | 2019-04-26 | [El Niño crop damage climbs to P7.96 billion - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59514-el-nino-crop-damage-climbs-to-p7-96-billion-businessworld-online.md) | +0.6% | +5.3% |
| CORN | 2022-12-18 | [Tight grain, oilseed supplies to keep prices elevated - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8467-tight-grain-oilseed-supplies-to-keep-prices-elevated-businessworld-online.md) | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2021-12-26 | [Withering crops highlight La Niña fears for Brazil soy farmers - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13761-withering-crops-highlight-la-nina-fears-for-brazil-soy-farmers-businessworld.md) | -1.3% | +3.3% |

## Sources

- bworldonline.com: https://bworldonline.com/the-nation/2026/11/04/791491/very-strong-el-nino-threatens-farm-output-water-supply-nationwide/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.