# Uncertainty for energy policy as US awaits new administration: 2025 preview - Fastmarkets

> Fastmarkets previewed 2025 US biofuel policy uncertainty, including pending import tariffs on used cooking oil, the shift from the Blenders Tax Credit to the 45Z credit, and delayed guidance. Experts expect vegetable oil prices to be volatile, with the outcome deciding whether bean oil trades below 40 cents or near 50 cents.

- Date: 2025-01-06 · published 2025-01-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/8108-uncertainty-for-energy-policy-as-us-awaits-new-administration-2025-preview
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Unresolved tariff and tax credit rules keep biofuel feedstock demand uncertain, making soybean oil prices sensitive to policy headlines.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2025-12-05 | [Farm policy advances amid growing uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21485-farm-policy-advances-amid-growing-uncertainty.md) | -2.2% | -4.9% |
| SBO | 2026-09-01 | [US fats, oils markets gain RFS clarity after weeks of refinery waiver uncertainty - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14993-us-fats-oils-markets-gain-rfs-clarity-after-weeks-of-refinery-waiver.md) | -3.7% | -6.6% |
| SBO | 2022-08-25 | [Argentina to extend duration of higher biodiesel blend, says energy minister - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40124-argentina-to-extend-duration-of-higher-biodiesel-blend-says-energy-minister.md) | +1.7% | -4.1% |
| SBO | 2025-08-01 | [Uncertainty prevails as soy oil market seeks US biofuels clarity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23827-uncertainty-prevails-as-soy-oil-market-seeks-us-biofuels-clarity.md) | -1.5% | -1.3% |
| SBO | 2024-06-24 | [Soybean Crush Remains Strong as US Energy Policy Goes Awry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15207-soybean-crush-remains-strong-as-us-energy-policy-goes-awry.md) | +0.4% | +7.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-03-09 | [Palm oil players to keep an eye on new ministry’s policy - Focus Malaysia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54017-palm-oil-players-to-keep-an-eye-on-new-ministry-s-policy-focus-malaysia.md) | -6.5% | -12.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-09-24 | [24 September 2021: News on Minister of Trade Regulation: Benchmark of Export Price on Agriculture & Forestry Products Levied with Export Duty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44941-24-september-2021-news-on-minister-of-trade-regulation-benchmark-of-export.md) | +0.1% | +12.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2024-12-12 | [Application of EUDR Regulation on deforestation-free products delayed until December 2025 \| Access2Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26987-application-of-eudr-regulation-on-deforestation-free-products-delayed-until.md) | -2.2% | -12.3% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/uncertainty-for-energy-policy-as-us-awaits-new-administration-2025-preview/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.