# Rupiah Could Sink to Rp18,350 as Oil Prices and MSCI Review Weigh

> An outlook piece says the rupiah may stay in the Rp18,000 to Rp18,100 range through the fourth quarter of 2026, with a worse-case scenario of Rp18,350 by year-end. Pressures cited include rising oil prices, high US bond yields and uncertainty over Indonesia's market status in the MSCI assessment. An INDEF economist expects limited room for a rebound toward Rp17,000.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T03:11:45.470Z
- Category: macro · region Indonesia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81067-rupiah-could-sink-to-rp18-350-as-oil-prices-and-msci-review-weigh
- Commodities: [Indonesian Rupiah (IDR per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDIDR.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Persistent rupiah weakness raises the local cost of dollar-priced feed imports and energy, which can squeeze margins for Indonesian feed buyers. The forecast is an analyst view rather than a market-moving event.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: bullish ▲
- USDIDR: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2017-04-12 | [Syria, OPEC, and Oil Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71674-syria-opec-and-oil-prices.md) | -5.0% | -11.4% |
| BRENT | 2019-01-14 | [The Week Ahead: Will the ringgit and oil prices continue to do well this week? \| KLSE Screener](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61350-the-week-ahead-will-the-ringgit-and-oil-prices-continue-to-do-well-this-week.md) | +4.2% | +3.1% |
| BRENT | 2020-12-23 | [Freight boom fuels shipping and oil prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49840-freight-boom-fuels-shipping-and-oil-prices.md) | +2.1% | +11.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-30 | [South African rand weakens as Middle East conflict elevates oil prices \| CNBC Africa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20456-south-african-rand-weakens-as-middle-east-conflict-elevates-oil-prices-cnbc.md) | +1.2% | -5.1% |
| BRENT | 2026-09-28 | [Rand weakens as oil prices rise and rate-hike fears support dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17765-rand-weakens-as-oil-prices-rise-and-rate-hike-fears-support-dollar.md) | +6.5% | +1.3% |

## Sources

- kabarbisnis.com: https://www.kabarbisnis.com/read/28137787/rupiah-terancam-terpuruk-rp-18-350-harga-minyak-dan-badai-msci-jadi-biang-kerok

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.