# Bank of England preview: first hike to 4% expected as energy pushes inflation to 3.5%

> The Bank of England was widely expected to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4% on Thursday, its first move in this cycle, as UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September driven by fuel costs. Forecasts were expected to show inflation peaking above 4% in early 2027, and the vote split and guidance were seen as the key market drivers.

- Date: 2026-11-05 · published 2026-11-05T03:09:58.263Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/81029-bank-of-england-preview-first-hike-to-4-expected-as-energy-pushes-inflation-to
- Commodities: [British Pound (USD per GBP)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/GBPUSD.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Energy-driven inflation and a tighter BoE support a firmer pound and raise financing costs for UK feed and livestock operators. Oil and gas price moves remain the main swing factor for how far the Bank tightens further.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: neutral
- GBPUSD: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2024-12-31 | [Baht, oil prices expected to face volatility in 2025: NESDC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27244-baht-oil-prices-expected-to-face-volatility-in-2025-nesdc.md) | +4.2% | +4.6% |
| BRENT | 2017-12-01 | [Crude oil prices to be under pressure in first half of 2018: S&P](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67647-crude-oil-prices-to-be-under-pressure-in-first-half-of-2018-s-and-p.md) | -2.0% | +4.9% |
| BRENT | 2025-02-25 | [Bank of America Predicts Brent crude to Average $75/bbl in 2025 - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events - EnergyNow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26236-bank-of-america-predicts-brent-crude-to-average-75-bbl-in-2025-energy-news-top.md) | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| BRENT | 2017-03-15 | [Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71924-will-a-fed-rate-hike-boost-the-price-of-oil-investing-com.md) | +0.6% | +10.4% |
| BRENT | 2023-02-24 | [Week in Review – February 24, 2023 - Mansfield Energy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37502-week-in-review-february-24-2023-mansfield-energy.md) | +2.8% | -8.6% |

## Sources

- investinglive.com: https://investinglive.com/central-banks/bank-of-england-preview-first-hike-to-4-expected-as-energy-pushes-inflation-to-3-5/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.