# Rationally view the decline in breeding sow inventory; do not overestimate the rebound potential for hog prices

> Chinese authorities have used counter-cyclical capacity controls, and the national breeding sow herd of 36.02 million head at end-Q3 reached 96% of the 37.5 million target. An industry commentary argues that improved productivity, heavier slaughter weights, high frozen pork stocks and weak demand limit the supply reduction effect.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-05T00:16:10.298Z
- Category: policy · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80795-rationally-view-the-decline-in-breeding-sow-inventory-do-not-overestimate-the
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Analysts warn against assuming a sharp hog price recovery, which implies that China's pork and hog demand for feed will stay subdued in the near term.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2019-11-12 | [State Council planning more measures to restore nation's hog production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56059-state-council-planning-more-measures-to-restore-nation-s-hog-production.md) | -0.3% | -2.4% |
| HOGS | 2024-03-28 | [China's Hog Herd Size to Remain in Surplus This Year Despite Smaller Sow Target - Pork Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31185-china-s-hog-herd-size-to-remain-in-surplus-this-year-despite-smaller-sow-target.md) | +1.5% | +10.7% |
| HOGS | 2025-10-13 | [Dongfang Securities: The hog industry suffers deep losses and accelerates capacity reduction \| Longbridge](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22387-dongfang-securities-the-hog-industry-suffers-deep-losses-and-accelerates.md) | -9.5% | -13.5% |
| HOGS | 2022-10-21 | [Weekly global protein digest: U.S. nears record poultry deaths from bird flu; Europe hit hard too
						 \| The Poultry Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39139-weekly-global-protein-digest-u-s-nears-record-poultry-deaths-from-bird-flu.md) | -1.3% | -3.9% |
| HOGS | 2022-11-16 | [China's pork prices to stay relatively stable: official - Chinadaily.com.cn](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38679-china-s-pork-prices-to-stay-relatively-stable-official-chinadaily-com-cn.md) | -1.5% | -5.0% |

## Sources

- nongye.yantai.gov.cn: https://nongye.yantai.gov.cn/col/col20538/art/2026/art_28b656ff29564f22b57d7212a31ec2dd.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.