# Africa must brace for a powerful El Niño - Agri Monitor

> NOAA gives the developing El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the 2026/27 northern autumn and winter, with a 69% chance of exceeding any event recorded since 1950 between October and December. Southern Africa faces heightened drought and extreme heat risk, while parts of East Africa could see above-normal rainfall and flooding.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-05T00:14:41.829Z
- Category: weather · region Africa · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80769-africa-must-brace-for-a-powerful-el-nino-agri-monitor
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A very strong El Niño raises the risk of drought in Southern Africa and disrupted rainfall elsewhere, which can cut regional maize and other crop output and increase import demand for feed grains.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-04-21 | [El Niño awaited, more corn for ethanol](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71341-el-nino-awaited-more-corn-for-ethanol.md) | +1.4% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2018-08-10 | [El Niño forecast may mean better maize prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63455-el-nino-forecast-may-mean-better-maize-prices.md) | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| CORN | 2024-04-08 | [GEOGLAM CROP MONITOR SPECIAL ALERTS - SOUTHERN AFRICA EL NIñO INDUCED DROUGHT - GEOGLAM - Group on Earth Observations Global Agriculture Monitoring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30652-geoglam-crop-monitor-special-alerts-southern-africa-el-nino-induced-drought.md) | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2017-06-27 | [EU Crop Monitor MARS lowers forecasts for wheat, barley](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70430-eu-crop-monitor-mars-lowers-forecasts-for-wheat-barley.md) | +4.8% | +2.4% |
| CORN | 2023-04-27 | [El Nino May Boost Soil Moisture in May for South American Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36317-el-nino-may-boost-soil-moisture-in-may-for-south-american-wheat.md) | -0.9% | -4.0% |

## Sources

- agrimonitor.com.na: https://www.agrimonitor.com.na/agri-monitor/africa-must-brace-for-a-powerful-el-nio-nmh017628-5-21716

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.