# Citi targets $5,000 gold as a Hormuz reopening could flip the Fed from hikes to cuts

> Citi set a 0-3 month gold target of $4,500 an ounce and a 6-12 month target of $5,000, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Yemen/Saudi conflict de-escalates by year-end. Citi's Max Layton said much lower oil prices could shift the Fed from hiking to cutting rates.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-05T00:14:36.178Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80767-citi-targets-5-000-gold-as-a-hormuz-reopening-could-flip-the-fed-from-hikes-to
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

The note links a Hormuz reopening to lower oil, which would ease energy-driven inflation and could flip Fed policy toward cuts. That mainly affects gold and the dollar, with weaker energy costs also easing diesel and fertilizer input pressure for feed producers.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2022-07-05 | [Oil could plummet to the $60s if a recession hits, Citi speculates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12618-oil-could-plummet-to-the-60s-if-a-recession-hits-citi-speculates.md) | -3.9% | -12.8% |
| WTI | 2018-07-19 | [Dollar and gold falters as Trump hits fed, stocks drop: markets wrap - MINING.COM](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63947-dollar-and-gold-falters-as-trump-hits-fed-stocks-drop-markets-wrap-mining-com.md) | +2.5% | -5.4% |
| WTI | 2019-06-05 | [The Fed is ready to cut rates as needed - Mansfield Energy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10751-the-fed-is-ready-to-cut-rates-as-needed-mansfield-energy.md) | -0.4% | +4.8% |
| WTI | 2026-06-24 | [Oil curve points to near-term glut as Hormuz flows rise \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18985-oil-curve-points-to-near-term-glut-as-hormuz-flows-rise-reuters.md) | -5.3% | +15.5% |
| WTI | 2023-03-07 | [Oil and Gold Prices Slump As Powell Signals Further Rate Hikes to Come - Markets Insider](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36780-oil-and-gold-prices-slump-as-powell-signals-further-rate-hikes-to-come-markets.md) | -7.1% | -0.0% |
| BRENT | 2022-07-05 | [Oil could plummet to the $60s if a recession hits, Citi speculates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12618-oil-could-plummet-to-the-60s-if-a-recession-hits-citi-speculates.md) | -4.9% | -11.7% |
| BRENT | 2026-06-24 | [Oil curve points to near-term glut as Hormuz flows rise \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18985-oil-curve-points-to-near-term-glut-as-hormuz-flows-rise-reuters.md) | -6.2% | +21.0% |
| BRENT | 2023-03-07 | [Oil and Gold Prices Slump As Powell Signals Further Rate Hikes to Come - Markets Insider](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36780-oil-and-gold-prices-slump-as-powell-signals-further-rate-hikes-to-come-markets.md) | -6.7% | -0.8% |

## Sources

- investinglive.com: https://investinglive.com/commodities/citi-targets-5-000-gold-as-a-hormuz-reopening-could-flip-the-fed-from-hikes-to-cuts/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.