# Vegetable oil futures surge as Russia-Ukraine grain deal comes to abrupt end 01.11.2022 - UkrAgroConsult

> Crude palm futures in Malaysia rose almost 5% and CBOT soyoil spiked in early Asian trade on Oct 31 after Russia said it would no longer take part in the UN-brokered Black Sea grain corridor. CBOT soyoil traded up more than 2% near 73.4 cents per pound. Palm, soyoil and sunflower oil are linked as competing vegetable oils.

- Date: 2022-11-01 · published 2022-11-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/8076-vegetable-oil-futures-surge-as-russia-ukraine-grain-deal-comes-to-abrupt-end-01
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Sunflower Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SUNMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

Russia's exit from the corridor raises doubts over Ukrainian sunflower oil exports, lifting competing palm and soyoil prices in the near term.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲
- SUNMEAL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2022-10-31 | 1 | +8.5% | 4.4 | Reports palm rose almost 5% and soyoil spiked on Oct 31 after Russia's withdrawal, with vegetable oils substituting for each other, directly describing the move. |
| PALMOIL | 2022-11-01 | 1 | +8.5% | 4.0 | Explains the mechanism: the Black Sea corridor suspension lifted soyoil and sunflower oil, and palm followed as a competing vegetable oil (substitution and sentiment). |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2022-02-24 | [Factbox: Russia’s Ukraine invasion seen disrupting vegetable oil, grain trade flows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14511-factbox-russia-s-ukraine-invasion-seen-disrupting-vegetable-oil-grain-trade.md) | +13.5% | +11.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-04-01 | [Soybean oil prices have fallen, but palm and sunflower oil prices remain high 01.04.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4038-soybean-oil-prices-have-fallen-but-palm-and-sunflower-oil-prices-remain-high-01.md) | -8.9% | -1.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-04-05 | [North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola climbs higher 05.04.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4037-north-american-grain-oilseed-review-canola-climbs-higher-05-04-2022.md) | +4.8% | +20.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-02-14 | [North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Old, new crops head in opposite directions 14.02.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42685-north-american-grain-and-oilseed-review-old-new-crops-head-in-opposite.md) | +1.3% | +14.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-03-22 | [Ukraine Sunflower Planting to Sink With Crop Hit Hardest by War 22.03.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42395-ukraine-sunflower-planting-to-sink-with-crop-hit-hardest-by-war-22-03-2022.md) | +1.2% | -0.7% |
| SBO | 2022-02-24 | [Factbox: Russia’s Ukraine invasion seen disrupting vegetable oil, grain trade flows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14511-factbox-russia-s-ukraine-invasion-seen-disrupting-vegetable-oil-grain-trade.md) | +5.0% | +0.9% |
| SBO | 2022-04-05 | [North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola climbs higher 05.04.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4037-north-american-grain-oilseed-review-canola-climbs-higher-05-04-2022.md) | -2.2% | +0.3% |
| SBO | 2022-02-14 | [North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Old, new crops head in opposite directions 14.02.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42685-north-american-grain-and-oilseed-review-old-new-crops-head-in-opposite.md) | -0.4% | +12.9% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/vegetable-oil-futures-surge-as-russia-ukraine-grain-deal-comes-to-abrupt-end/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.