# The El Niño Effect: Why India's Kharif Recovery May Not Tell the Full Story

> India's southwest monsoon ended 13% below the long-period average, the weakest since 2015, while kharif sowing recovered substantially from a weak start. Reservoir storage has fallen to about 70%, and a strengthening El Niño is raising concerns for rabi crop yields, wheat, and food prices.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T21:12:43.264Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80523-the-el-nino-effect-why-india-s-kharif-recovery-may-not-tell-the-full-story
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A weak monsoon and low reservoirs point to tighter rabi-season wheat and pulses supply, which could lift Indian food prices and reinforce import demand for feed grains and oilseed meals.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-19 | [El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. \| Climate Change](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change.md) | +3.0% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-01-10 | [What is El Niño, and how does it affect the weather and temperatures?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37701-what-is-el-nino-and-how-does-it-affect-the-weather-and-temperatures.md) | -0.6% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-16 | [Explainer: Why El Nino is a concern for Indian monsoon rains?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35897-explainer-why-el-nino-is-a-concern-for-indian-monsoon-rains.md) | -2.2% | -7.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-10 | [India heatwave: Summer is early - and India’s economy is not ready for it](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25551-india-heatwave-summer-is-early-and-india-s-economy-is-not-ready-for-it.md) | +0.1% | +2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-11 | [Erratic Weather Lowers India’s Chance to Reap Record Wheat Crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31140-erratic-weather-lowers-india-s-chance-to-reap-record-wheat-crop.md) | -7.3% | -3.6% |
| CORN | 2024-06-13 | [El Niño is dead. Here’s what to expect in the coming months \| CNN](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29662-el-nino-is-dead-here-s-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-months-cnn.md) | -2.1% | -8.8% |
| CORN | 2023-06-08 | [Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35411-hello-el-nino-what-to-expect-for-the-2023-crop-agweb.md) | +3.5% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2025-08-19 | [El Niño and La Niña affect grain production in Goiás and the Federal District - Cultivar Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23242-el-nino-and-la-nina-affect-grain-production-in-goias-and-the-federal-district.md) | +1.2% | +8.5% |

## Sources

- outlookbusiness.com: https://www.outlookbusiness.com/planet/future-of-food/the-el-ni%C3%B1o-effect-why-indias-kharif-recovery-may-not-tell-the-full-story

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.