# JPMorgan sees global oil market return to surplus

> JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million b/d in September, widening to 1.4 million b/d in October, as Middle East exports recovered and demand softened. This contrasts with the IEA's October report, which projected continued deficits through year-end.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T21:12:28.809Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80518-jpmorgan-sees-global-oil-market-return-to-surplus
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A surplus view implies less physical tightness than the IEA assumes, which weighs on crude prices and reduces the premium tied to Iran war supply risk.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -2.2% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2020-01-16 | [IEA sees well-supplied oil market despite slower shale growth \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54972-iea-sees-well-supplied-oil-market-despite-slower-shale-growth-s-and-p-global.md) | -1.5% | -12.5% |
| BRENT | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -4.5% | -0.3% |
| BRENT | 2018-10-11 | [OPEC says oil market well supplied, wary of 2019 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62457-opec-says-oil-market-well-supplied-wary-of-2019-surplus.md) | -4.2% | -14.8% |
| BRENT | 2019-08-16 | [OPEC sees bearish oil outlook for rest of 2019, points to 2020 surplus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57507-opec-sees-bearish-oil-outlook-for-rest-of-2019-points-to-2020-surplus.md) | +3.6% | +4.8% |
| WTI | 2025-10-01 | [World oil market to see higher surplus after OPEC+ hike, IEA says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22773-world-oil-market-to-see-higher-surplus-after-opec-hike-iea-says.md) | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| WTI | 2020-01-16 | [IEA sees well-supplied oil market despite slower shale growth \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54972-iea-sees-well-supplied-oil-market-despite-slower-shale-growth-s-and-p-global.md) | -4.0% | -11.1% |
| WTI | 2025-10-14 | [World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22590-world-oil-market-to-see-huge-glut-in-2026-iea-says-reuters.md) | -2.7% | +1.7% |

## Sources

- ogj.com: https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/news/55416618/jpmorgan-sees-global-oil-market-return-to-surplus

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.