# World cereal production in 2026: latest FAO forecasts put output at 2,979 million tonnes

> The FAO's latest cereal supply and demand brief keeps its 2026 world cereal production forecast at 2,979 million tonnes, 2.1% below last year's record. Wheat output was raised by 3.2 million tonnes to 813.9 million, mainly on better Australian prospects, while coarse grain forecasts were cut.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T18:14:34.549Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80175-world-cereal-production-in-2026-latest-fao-forecasts-put-output-at-2-979
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Higher wheat supply offsets a lower coarse grain outlook, leaving global feed grain balances roughly flat. The wheat upgrade is mildly bearish for wheat prices, while lower secondary cereal output supports corn and sorghum.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: neutral
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼
- SORGHUM: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-05 | [World 2023 cereal production forecast up from last month; early prospects for 2024 point to limited area growth for wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32070-world-2023-cereal-production-forecast-up-from-last-month-early-prospects-for.md) | -2.2% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-06-18 | [Australian wheat production forecast to top 30 million tonnes \| Queensland Country Life \| QLD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40887-australian-wheat-production-forecast-to-top-30-million-tonnes-queensland.md) | -2.9% | -14.0% |
| WHEAT | 2024-11-27 | [Argentina’s soybean area updated while wheat output forecast at 17.6 million tonnes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13892-argentina-s-soybean-area-updated-while-wheat-output-forecast-at-17-6-million.md) | -0.1% | +2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2020-06-16 | [Rebound in grain production lifts wheat forecast to 26.7Mt: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52584-rebound-in-grain-production-lifts-wheat-forecast-to-26-7mt-abares-grain-central.md) | +1.5% | -4.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-09-17 | [France Updates Wheat and Corn Production Forecasts for 2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22802-france-updates-wheat-and-corn-production-forecasts-for-2025.md) | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-03-18 | [The higher forecast production in the new season lowers the price of wheat old crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48191-the-higher-forecast-production-in-the-new-season-lowers-the-price-of-wheat-old.md) | -4.1% | +1.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2019-03-04 | [Australia’s 2019-20 wheat output forecast higher \| 2019-03-04  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60036-australia-s-2019-20-wheat-output-forecast-higher-2019-03-04-world-grain.md) | -3.6% | -2.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-08-13 | [Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28812-despite-lower-production-and-inventory-forecasts-in-the-usda-report-wheat.md) | -1.4% | +5.7% |

## Sources

- liiquotidien.com: https://liiquotidien.com/2026/11/04/production-mondiale-de-cereales-en-2026-les-dernieres-previsions-de-la-fao-tablent-sur-2-979-millions-de-tonnes/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.