# JPMorgan, HSBC say oil supplies are recovering from Middle East disruption

> JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million bpd in September and widened to 1.4 million bpd in October. Middle East exports have recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from 9.8 million in March, and HSBC raised its Saudi Aramco production forecasts.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T18:13:41.749Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/80160-jpmorgan-hsbc-say-oil-supplies-are-recovering-from-middle-east-disruption
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A returning surplus and recovering Gulf exports point to softer crude prices, which lowers biofuel and fertilizer input costs and eases pressure on feed ingredient margins.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2024-10-15 | [Oil plunges 4% as Iran supply disruption concerns ease, demand outlook weakens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28029-oil-plunges-4-as-iran-supply-disruption-concerns-ease-demand-outlook-weakens.md) | -5.4% | -7.6% |
| BRENT | 2023-12-12 | [Oil falls more than 3% on softening demand, oversupply concerns \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32904-oil-falls-more-than-3-on-softening-demand-oversupply-concerns-reuters.md) | +3.3% | +2.3% |
| BRENT | 2023-07-04 | [Why are OPEC+ supply cuts failing to boost oil prices?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34941-why-are-opec-supply-cuts-failing-to-boost-oil-prices.md) | +4.3% | +14.5% |
| BRENT | 2022-10-14 | [Oil prices fall more than 3% on recession worries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39282-oil-prices-fall-more-than-3-on-recession-worries.md) | -3.1% | -1.0% |
| BRENT | 2020-08-20 | [Oil falls on OPEC+ oversupply, US jobless data - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51783-oil-falls-on-opec-oversupply-us-jobless-data-markets-business-recorder.md) | +0.9% | -7.9% |
| WTI | 2024-10-15 | [Oil plunges 4% as Iran supply disruption concerns ease, demand outlook weakens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28029-oil-plunges-4-as-iran-supply-disruption-concerns-ease-demand-outlook-weakens.md) | -5.8% | -7.4% |
| WTI | 2026-08-28 | [Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18056-dollar-strength-and-increased-middle-east-oil-flows-weigh-on-crude-prices.md) | +9.2% | +13.1% |
| WTI | 2023-12-12 | [Oil falls more than 3% on softening demand, oversupply concerns \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32904-oil-falls-more-than-3-on-softening-demand-oversupply-concerns-reuters.md) | +1.7% | +0.6% |

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/jpmorgan-says-rising-exports-weak-demand-push-global-oil-market-into-surplus-4999413

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.