# El Niño brings excess rain to the South and drought risk to the Amazon, with crop effects through 2027

> El Niño's peak, forecast for November, is creating rainfall contrasts across Brazil. Paraná's winter grain output is seen falling 28% from 2025, with wheat down 34%, and sugarcane in the Center-South is delayed by more than 20% after excess rain. The Northeast faces drought that is cutting cane output.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T15:12:10.456Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79977-el-nino-brings-excess-rain-to-the-south-and-drought-risk-to-the-amazon-with
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Lower Paraná wheat output tightens domestic wheat supply and raises import needs, while sugarcane delays may shift ethanol and sugar economics that feed into corn and energy demand. The overall picture adds upside risk to feed grain and wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-10 | [Drought Grows South, Rain Helping Northward Through Next Week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12964-drought-grows-south-rain-helping-northward-through-next-week.md) | -0.9% | -3.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-23 | [El Niño expected to bring “normal” wheat crop in Australia - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37301-el-nino-expected-to-bring-normal-wheat-crop-in-australia-fastmarkets.md) | -3.0% | -8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +1.4% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2020-09-22 | [Drought hampering Black Sea crop sowing sparks light in wheat prices
 \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51175-drought-hampering-black-sea-crop-sowing-sparks-light-in-wheat-prices-the-land.md) | +5.6% | +10.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-21 | [South America Drought Woes Continue Despite Rain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13687-south-america-drought-woes-continue-despite-rain.md) | +0.2% | -2.4% |
| CORN | 2025-09-08 | [The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Drought Outlook in the United States \| September 8, 2025 \| Drought.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22788-the-el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-in-the-united-states.md) | -0.1% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2023-06-08 | [Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35411-hello-el-nino-what-to-expect-for-the-2023-crop-agweb.md) | +3.5% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2026-10-14 | [El Niño puts Panama Canal capacity and grain shipments at risk in 2027 \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16760-el-nino-puts-panama-canal-capacity-and-grain-shipments-at-risk-in-2027-world.md) | -1.8% | — |

## Sources

- agrimidia.com.br: https://agrimidia.com.br/suinocultura-industrial/2026/11/04/el-nino-traz-excesso-de-chuva-no-sul-e-risco-de-seca-na-amazonia-com-efeitos-nas-safras-ate-2027/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.