# Brazilian Real: Rate-cut pause but medium-term gains – Commerzbank

> Commerzbank expects the Central Bank of Brazil to pause its rate-cutting cycle at 13.75% because of fiscal and inflation concerns after Lula's re-election. Analysts now expect only one further 25 basis point cut by year-end, down from three previously. Commerzbank still expects the real to appreciate over the medium term and sees room for lower rates next year.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T15:08:47.985Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79910-brazilian-real-rate-cut-pause-but-medium-term-gains-commerzbank
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A pause in Selic cuts keeps Brazilian financing costs elevated for feed producers, while expected real appreciation would lower the local cost of imported grains and meal over the medium term.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-07-29 | [Brazilian Real Gains as Fed Holds Rates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18564-brazilian-real-gains-as-fed-holds-rates.md) | -0.0% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2025-12-11 | [Latin American assets rally on Fed cut, Brazil's cenbank maintains pause \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21716-latin-american-assets-rally-on-fed-cut-brazil-s-cenbank-maintains-pause-reuters.md) | +0.9% | -2.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-08-27 | [Brazilian Real: Rate cuts may support BRL against US Dollar - Societe Generale](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18105-brazilian-real-rate-cuts-may-support-brl-against-us-dollar-societe-generale.md) | -1.1% | +0.6% |
| USDBRL | 2021-07-23 | [Brazil's real gains on rate-hike bets, but loses for the week \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46261-brazil-s-real-gains-on-rate-hike-bets-but-loses-for-the-week-financial-post.md) | -3.0% | +3.8% |
| USDBRL | 2021-05-27 | [Brazilian real leads gains among Latam FX \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47313-brazilian-real-leads-gains-among-latam-fx-financial-post.md) | -4.3% | -7.3% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-rate-cut-pause-but-medium-term-gains-commerzbank-202611041344

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.