# Australia's wheat production falls as 2026/27 barley crop strengthens

> USDA FAS forecasts Australian 2026/27 wheat output down 11% to 32.0 million tonnes, while barley is projected at a record 17.7 million tonnes. Higher nitrogen fertilizer costs tied to the Middle East conflict and El Niño dryness risk are shifting plantings toward barley.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T15:05:50.395Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79861-australia-s-wheat-production-falls-as-2026-27-barley-crop-strengthens
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller Australian wheat crop and a larger barley crop tighten wheat export supply and add barley availability, pressuring wheat prices up and barley prices down relative to each other, while higher fertilizer costs reinforce the shift.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-06-03 | [Australia to cut wheat production by 10% in 2025/26 — ABARES](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24169-australia-to-cut-wheat-production-by-10-in-2025-26-abares.md) | -1.0% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-02-18 | [Australian wheat production falls to 11-year low as drought bites](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60572-australian-wheat-production-falls-to-11-year-low-as-drought-bites.md) | -1.6% | -3.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-29 | [Australia’s wheat production forecast to drop \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19682-australia-s-wheat-production-forecast-to-drop-world-grain.md) | -3.1% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-05 | [Australia's winter crop production forecast to be down 21 per cent](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18772-australia-s-winter-crop-production-forecast-to-be-down-21-per-cent.md) | -0.4% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-30 | [Australia’s wheat production may decline significantly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19688-australia-s-wheat-production-may-decline-significantly.md) | -3.2% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- millingmea.com: https://millingmea.com/australias-wheat-production-falls-as-2026-27-barley-crop-strengthens/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.