# Brazil girds for tight runoff vote after Bolsonaro's strong showing | Reuters

> Brazil's real strengthened about 4.5% against the dollar in afternoon trading after Jair Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing, while the Ibovespa rose 4.7%. The result set up a tight runoff vote, with analysts expecting a possible shift toward the center.

- Date: 2022-10-03 · published 2022-10-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7986-brazil-girds-for-tight-runoff-vote-after-bolsonaro-s-strong-showing-reuters
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp real rally lowers the local cost of imported inputs and can reduce Brazilian export competitiveness for soybeans, corn and meal, which tends to ease upward pressure on Brazilian-origin feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2022-10-03 | 1 | -4.0% | -4.0 | Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing cut the odds of a Lula first-round win and fueled a roughly 4.5% real rally on 2022-10-03, matching the size and date of the move (sign convention aside, a sharp one-day BRL move). |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-03 | [Lula approves spending cuts to meet Brazil's fiscal framework, says minister \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9451-lula-approves-spending-cuts-to-meet-brazil-s-fiscal-framework-says-minister.md) | -4.8% | -0.2% |
| USDBRL | 2022-10-03 | [Brazil markets post best day since 2020 as Bolsonaro outperforms polls](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7984-brazil-markets-post-best-day-since-2020-as-bolsonaro-outperforms-polls.md) | -3.4% | -2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2019-01-03 | [Brazil markets soar as new government vows to shrink state](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12357-brazil-markets-soar-as-new-government-vows-to-shrink-state.md) | -3.4% | -4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2019-01-03 | [Bolsonaro effect on Brazilian markets and currency — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12358-bolsonaro-effect-on-brazilian-markets-and-currency-mercopress.md) | -3.4% | -4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2023-07-07 | [Brazil's lower house approves 'historic' tax reform bill](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35241-brazil-s-lower-house-approves-historic-tax-reform-bill.md) | -2.3% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-election-enters-runoff-bolsonaro-dashes-lulas-hope-quick-win-2022-10-03/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.