# Matif crash: why wheat and rapeseed prices are falling despite smaller EU harvests?

> December Euronext (Matif) wheat fell 3.00 euro to 225.25 euro/t, breaking support near 227-228 euro/t, and is down about 23 euro/t since mid-October. Investors are cutting long positions on possible Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks and a stronger euro, while IKAR cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast from 42 to 39.5 million tonnes and Sovecon reported only 2.9 million tonnes of Russian wheat exported in October.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T13:37:45.997Z
- Category: geopolitics · region EU · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79844-matif-crash-why-wheat-and-rapeseed-prices-are-falling-despite-smaller-eu
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Peace-talk hopes raise expectations of reopened Black Sea grain flows, pressuring European grain and rapeseed prices despite tighter Russian export supply. Feed buyers may see softer cereal and rapeseed meal costs near term, though the fundamental supply tightness remains.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-29 | [Wheat: Prices fall on peace talks, low demand \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42308-wheat-prices-fall-on-peace-talks-low-demand-latest-market-news.md) | -9.0% | -3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-16 | [Corn, Wheat And Soy All See Prices Drop On Prospect Of US-Iran Deal \| ESM Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18835-corn-wheat-and-soy-all-see-prices-drop-on-prospect-of-us-iran-deal-esm-magazine.md) | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-28 | [Wheat prices fall as global supply weighs on markets - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/443-wheat-prices-fall-as-global-supply-weighs-on-markets-farmers-weekly.md) | +0.2% | — |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-17 | [Wheat markets shrug off US-Iran deal as freight, harvests take focus \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16848-wheat-markets-shrug-off-us-iran-deal-as-freight-harvests-take-focus-s-and-p.md) | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2024-11-26 | [​Brent crude oil, silver and wheat prices drop on Middle East de-escalation​ \| Levels to Watch \| IG International](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11779-brent-crude-oil-silver-and-wheat-prices-drop-on-middle-east-de-escalation.md) | -0.1% | +2.1% |
| EURUSD | 2022-03-09 | [Euro surges as oil prices ease and investors embrace risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9523-euro-surges-as-oil-prices-ease-and-investors-embrace-risk.md) | +0.9% | +0.4% |
| EURUSD | 2026-01-20 | [EUR/USD rallies as escalating US-EU tensions crush the Dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7344-eur-usd-rallies-as-escalating-us-eu-tensions-crush-the-dollar.md) | +2.5% | +2.0% |
| EURUSD | 2017-04-24 | [France's Macron and Le Pen head for runoff in second round of presidential election](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9727-france-s-macron-and-le-pen-head-for-runoff-in-second-round-of-presidential.md) | +1.9% | +4.6% |

## Sources

- cenyrolnicze.pl: https://www.cenyrolnicze.pl/wiadomosci/rynki-rolne/zboza/44414-krach-na-gieldzie-matif-dlaczego-ceny-pszenicy-i-rzepaku-leca-w-dol-mimo-mniejszych-zbiorow-w-ue

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.