# The risk is not El Niño itself, but being surprised by it

> An opinion column on fresh produce supply chains argues that the main risk from the 2026/27 El Niño is failing to anticipate which crops and regions will be hit. It cites a USDA FAS report from October 13 that NOAA projects possibly very strong El Niño conditions between November 2026 and January 2027, a period overlapping Brazil's planting and crop development.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-04T12:13:02.619Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79685-the-risk-is-not-el-nino-itself-but-being-surprised-by-it
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Possible strong El Niño rains and drought during Brazil's planting window can affect soybean and corn supply expectations later in the season. The column is general commentary with no new supply data, so its direct price effect is limited.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-02-24 | [The 2025 growing season in Illinois: good but not great - farmdoc](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13014-the-2025-growing-season-in-illinois-good-but-not-great-farmdoc.md) | +1.4% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2024-03-04 | [El Niño weakens but impacts continue](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31121-el-nino-weakens-but-impacts-continue.md) | +2.4% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2023-06-01 | [May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35865-may-2023-enso-update-el-nino-knocking-on-the-door.md) | +4.7% | +14.1% |
| SOY | 2025-03-06 | [La Niña event is expected to be short-lived](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25499-la-nina-event-is-expected-to-be-short-lived.md) | -1.0% | +3.2% |
| SOY | 2026-01-22 | [Will El Niño be slow to develop? \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20953-will-el-nino-be-slow-to-develop-world-grain.md) | +1.0% | +7.2% |
| CORN | 2024-06-13 | [El Niño is dead. Here’s what to expect in the coming months \| CNN](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29662-el-nino-is-dead-here-s-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-months-cnn.md) | -2.1% | -8.8% |
| CORN | 2026-02-24 | [The 2025 growing season in Illinois: good but not great - farmdoc](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13014-the-2025-growing-season-in-illinois-good-but-not-great-farmdoc.md) | +1.5% | +7.0% |
| CORN | 2024-03-04 | [El Niño weakens but impacts continue](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31121-el-nino-weakens-but-impacts-continue.md) | +5.1% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- revistacultivar.com: https://revistacultivar.com/articles/The-risk-is-not-El-Ni%C3%B1o-itself--but-being-surprised-by-it.

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.