# ICAR raises stress-scenario grain export forecast for the season to 36.5 mln t

> Russia's agricultural market research institute ICAR cut its total 2026/27 grain export forecast to 49.5 mln t from 52.8 mln t, and wheat to 39.5 mln t from 42 mln t. Under its stress scenario, however, it raised the total grain export estimate to 36.5 mln t from 35 mln t, with wheat up to 30 mln t from 29 mln t.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-04T07:38:04.895Z
- Category: trade · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79420-icar-raises-stress-scenario-grain-export-forecast-for-the-season-to-36-5-mln-t
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower base forecasts tighten expected Russian supply, which is supportive for wheat and feed grain prices in export markets. The stress-scenario upgrade signals exports are running at the lower end of the range but still growing.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-20 | [Ukrainian seaports cut grain export by more than 6 mln tonnes in 2020](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48981-ukrainian-seaports-cut-grain-export-by-more-than-6-mln-tonnes-in-2020.md) | +4.0% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-03 | [Grain export from Russia has lowered for the last week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70863-grain-export-from-russia-has-lowered-for-the-last-week.md) | -2.1% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-06-13 | [Forecast Indian wheat exports cut by 2Mt: WASDE - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40899-forecast-indian-wheat-exports-cut-by-2mt-wasde-grain-central.md) | +1.0% | -6.4% |
| WHEAT | 2017-02-28 | [Grain Export From Russia To Gear Down](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72348-grain-export-from-russia-to-gear-down.md) | +1.1% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-09 | [Russian Grain Exports Increase 26% from Last Year - Russia Business Today](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62392-russian-grain-exports-increase-26-from-last-year-russia-business-today.md) | +8.3% | +4.4% |
| CORN | 2016-12-26 | [Ukrainian grains export since the start of season made 21.2M tons](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73349-ukrainian-grains-export-since-the-start-of-season-made-21-2m-tons.md) | +0.4% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2017-05-03 | [Grain export from Russia has lowered for the last week](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70863-grain-export-from-russia-has-lowered-for-the-last-week.md) | +0.5% | +1.2% |
| CORN | 2021-11-10 | [Grain export 2021/22: Ukraine's foreign supply close to 21 mln t — Latifundist.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14533-grain-export-2021-22-ukraine-s-foreign-supply-close-to-21-mln-t-latifundist-com.md) | +0.3% | +4.6% |

## Sources

- interfax.ru: https://www.interfax.ru/business/1126812

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.