# Indonesia avoids bulk rice imports despite El Niño hitting harvest

> Statistics Indonesia expects October-to-December rice output to fall 16% from a year earlier as El Niño leaves land unplanted, and the 2026 output estimate is cut 4.6%. Bulog holds reserves roughly three times its October 2023 level, and Thai and Vietnamese rice prices have risen as traders look to Philippine demand.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-04T03:12:52.359Z
- Category: weather · region Indonesia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79074-indonesia-avoids-bulk-rice-imports-despite-el-nino-hitting-harvest
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A shrinking Indonesian harvest would normally lift regional import demand, but large state stocks reduce the need for bulk purchases, limiting the upside for global rough rice prices. Higher Thai and Vietnamese export quotes still reflect firmer regional demand.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-02-01 | [Indonesia's January drought points to lower rice harvest, higher imports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31742-indonesia-s-january-drought-points-to-lower-rice-harvest-higher-imports.md) | +3.5% | +0.0% |
| RICE | 2021-09-21 | [Indonesia prepares measures to protect rice harvest from La Nina – Rice Today](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44988-indonesia-prepares-measures-to-protect-rice-harvest-from-la-nina-rice-today.md) | +2.0% | +0.9% |
| RICE | 2023-07-11 | [Rice Soars to Two-Year High in Asia on El Niño Drought Risks - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5208-rice-soars-to-two-year-high-in-asia-on-el-nino-drought-risks-bloomberg.md) | -19.6% | -16.6% |
| RICE | 2026-05-13 | [El Niño fears push rice importers to build stocks as Thailand watches drought risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19304-el-nino-fears-push-rice-importers-to-build-stocks-as-thailand-watches-drought.md) | +7.7% | +2.4% |
| RICE | 2023-05-15 | [Rice markets in South and Southeast Asia face stresses from El Niño, export restrictions \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35867-rice-markets-in-south-and-southeast-asia-face-stresses-from-el-nino-export.md) | -6.6% | +7.6% |

## Sources

- cropli.io: https://cropli.io/rice/2026/11/03/el-nino-cuts-indonesias-late-rice-harvest-by-a-sixth-but-record-reserve-keeps-jakarta-out-of-import-market

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.