# El Niño food prices 2026–27: which products are running short

> A very strong El Niño is developing and expected to strengthen through year-end, with the FAO food price index at 136.0 in September, its highest since November 2022. Cereal and vegetable oil prices were 17.2% and 18.3% higher year on year, and Black Sea shipping constraints have also weighed on the FAO's cereal trade forecast. Studies cited suggest El Niño may lift soybean yields while cutting maize, rice and wheat.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-04T03:12:52.278Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/79073-el-nino-food-prices-2026-27-which-products-are-running-short
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Weather-driven supply risk combined with constrained Black Sea shipping supports firmer grain and vegetable oil prices, while mixed yield effects across crops leave the net direction uneven.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-10-04 | [2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17050-2026-2027-el-nino-food-security-impacts.md) | -3.5% | -6.9% |
| CORN | 2026-09-04 | [Will a ‘Super’ El Niño Impact the Weather and Food Production in 2026? - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17398-will-a-super-el-nino-impact-the-weather-and-food-production-in-2026-bloomberg.md) | +0.5% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | +1.1% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| CORN | 2024-06-17 | [As El Niño Wanes, Food Security Pain Remains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29663-as-el-nino-wanes-food-security-pain-remains.md) | -4.3% | -9.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -5.3% | -2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.6% | -0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -2.4% | +2.9% |

## Sources

- thefoodeshow.com: https://thefoodeshow.com/el-nino-food-prices-2026-27-which-products-are-running-short/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.