# Opening: Dollar and futures rates surge on worsening Focus survey and fiscal caution

> The dollar rose 0.73% to R$5.4841 while futures rates climbed sharply after the central bank's Focus survey raised its 2027 inflation forecast from 4.34% to 4.76% and its 2026 year-end dollar forecast from R$5.05 to R$5.34. The market also expects a 2027 Selic of 12.50%, up from 11.75%. Brent rose 0.31% to $105.10 a barrel.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-04T03:08:06.871Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78997-opening-dollar-and-futures-rates-surge-on-worsening-focus-survey-and-fiscal
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Higher inflation and rate expectations point to tighter Brazilian credit and a weaker real, which affects the cost of Brazilian feed exports and local feed-making margins. The rising dollar forecast also signals continued pressure on Brazilian-origin commodity prices in reais.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-02 | [Latam assets drop on fiscal policy, interest rates caution](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9454-latam-assets-drop-on-fiscal-policy-interest-rates-caution.md) | -2.8% | +1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2022-04-28 | [Brazil real hit by surging dollar, focus shifts to earnings \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6865-brazil-real-hit-by-surging-dollar-focus-shifts-to-earnings-financial-post.md) | -0.2% | -3.1% |
| USDBRL | 2024-08-30 | [Brazil Real Swings on Fiscal Woes, Central Bank Interventions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29017-brazil-real-swings-on-fiscal-woes-central-bank-interventions.md) | -0.8% | -3.6% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-08 | [Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34010-why-the-us-fed-s-interest-rate-pause-is-a-win-for-dollar-bulls-the-national.md) | -2.2% | +4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2025-02-25 | [Analysis: Exchange rate caught between external factors and fiscal risks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26254-analysis-exchange-rate-caught-between-external-factors-and-fiscal-risks.md) | +2.7% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- bomdiamercado.com.br: https://www.bomdiamercado.com.br/mercado-financeiro/giro-dos-mercados/abertura-dolar-e-juros-futuros-disparam-com-piora-do-focus-e-cautela-fiscal/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.