# Morgan Stanley expects Türkiye's first rate cut in fourth quarter

> Morgan Stanley expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye to begin cutting rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 and keeps its year-end policy rate forecast at 35 percent. The bank cited Middle East tensions and higher energy prices as risks to disinflation. It also flagged lira pressure and strong domestic demand as possible reasons to delay easing.

- Date: 2026-11-04 · published 2026-11-04T00:53:16.480Z
- Category: macro · region Turkey · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78885-morgan-stanley-expects-turkiye-s-first-rate-cut-in-fourth-quarter
- Commodities: [Turkish Lira (TRY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDTRY.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Persistently high oil prices raise Turkey's import costs and inflation, which could keep monetary policy tight for longer. For feed buyers, tight credit and a weaker lira raise the cost of imported feed ingredients priced in dollars.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: neutral
- USDTRY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2018-03-30 | [Exclusive: China taking first steps to pay for oil in yuan this year - sources](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66215-exclusive-china-taking-first-steps-to-pay-for-oil-in-yuan-this-year-sources.md) | -4.4% | +5.0% |
| WTI | 2017-12-01 | [Crude oil prices to be under pressure in first half of 2018: S&P](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67647-crude-oil-prices-to-be-under-pressure-in-first-half-of-2018-s-and-p.md) | -1.5% | +5.3% |
| WTI | 2025-09-30 | [From geopolitics to rate cuts: What’s shaping commodities markets?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22764-from-geopolitics-to-rate-cuts-what-s-shaping-commodities-markets.md) | -2.8% | -3.3% |
| WTI | 2019-07-31 | [Posthaste: Some oilsands mines breakeven at $10, S&P cuts Canadian GDP forecast and why the Fed is cutting rates - Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58340-posthaste-some-oilsands-mines-breakeven-at-10-s-and-p-cuts-canadian-gdp.md) | -7.6% | -5.3% |
| WTI | 2026-07-29 | [ING Says Dollar to Take Cue from Oil Prices If Fed Holds Rate \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18262-ing-says-dollar-to-take-cue-from-oil-prices-if-fed-holds-rate-financial-post.md) | -4.4% | +3.8% |

## Sources

- ilkha.com: https://ilkha.com/english/economy/morgan-stanley-expects-turkiyes-first-rate-cut-in-fourth-quarter-549141

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.