# Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady

> Rystad Energy says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are settling into a fragile, partial recovery rather than a full return to pre-war levels. Gulf crude exports have kept rising even as attacks on commercial ships intensify and shipping costs climb. OPEC+ decided to keep output steady for December after a 188,000 b/d increase in September.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-04T00:19:09.546Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78689-hormuz-flows-recover-but-conflict-risk-persists-as-opec-holds-december-output
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

Partial Hormuz recovery limits the supply loss, but persistent attack risk and higher freight costs keep crude and diesel prices supported, raising the cost of energy and transport inputs for feed production and delivery.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-09-07 | [Opec+ holds oil output steady as prices continue to rise amid Middle East escalation \| Upstream](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17384-opec-holds-oil-output-steady-as-prices-continue-to-rise-amid-middle-east.md) | +12.0% | +18.6% |
| BRENT | 2025-11-02 | [OPEC+ pauses oil output hikes beyond December amid glut fears \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21872-opec-pauses-oil-output-hikes-beyond-december-amid-glut-fears-reuters.md) | -2.4% | -2.5% |
| BRENT | 2024-11-03 | [OPEC+ agrees to delay December output hike for one month \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27301-opec-agrees-to-delay-december-output-hike-for-one-month-reuters.md) | +0.8% | +0.2% |
| BRENT | 2022-03-02 | [Oil jumps to highest since 2011 as OPEC holds output steady despite Russia's war on Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42432-oil-jumps-to-highest-since-2011-as-opec-holds-output-steady-despite-russia-s.md) | +21.0% | +3.3% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-04 | [Oil settles at highest in over a year for second straight day as Iran crisis escalates, snarls Hormuz flows \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8004-oil-settles-at-highest-in-over-a-year-for-second-straight-day-as-iran-crisis.md) | +7.9% | +48.7% |
| WTI | 2026-09-07 | [Opec+ holds oil output steady as prices continue to rise amid Middle East escalation \| Upstream](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17384-opec-holds-oil-output-steady-as-prices-continue-to-rise-amid-middle-east.md) | +9.3% | +3.6% |
| WTI | 2025-11-02 | [OPEC+ pauses oil output hikes beyond December amid glut fears \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21872-opec-pauses-oil-output-hikes-beyond-december-amid-glut-fears-reuters.md) | -2.0% | -3.4% |
| WTI | 2024-11-03 | [OPEC+ agrees to delay December output hike for one month \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27301-opec-agrees-to-delay-december-output-hike-for-one-month-reuters.md) | +1.3% | -2.1% |

## Sources

- ajot.com: https://www.ajot.com/news/hormuz-flows-recover-but-conflict-risk-persists-as-opec-holds-december-output-steady-rystad-energys-market-update

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.