# Global LNG Supply To Fall By Record 3% In 2026, IEA Warns

> The IEA's Global Gas Security Review projects global LNG supply to fall about 3%, or nearly 20 bcm, in 2026, the steepest annual drop on record. Middle Eastern gas output is expected to fall 18% as Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, partly offset by growth in North American and African output.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T21:09:29.484Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78402-global-lng-supply-to-fall-by-record-3-in-2026-iea-warns
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Loss of Gulf LNG keeps global gas tight and supports energy-linked costs for fertilizer and processing, with a knock-on to nitrogen supply. Non-Gulf growth offsets only part of the shortfall, so the price effect is supportive.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2022-04-01 | [Asia LNG Price Surges to Record as War Spurs ‘Panic’ Over Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42452-asia-lng-price-surges-to-record-as-war-spurs-panic-over-supply.md) | +11.8% | +26.8% |
| NATGAS | 2026-04-01 | [How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20364-how-the-iran-war-is-disrupting-global-oil-and-gas-supply.md) | -4.5% | -9.0% |
| NATGAS | 2022-06-29 | [Global LNG outlook overview: Tight supply expected until 2026 \| Insights \| Bloomberg Professional Services](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41140-global-lng-outlook-overview-tight-supply-expected-until-2026-insights-bloomberg.md) | -15.5% | +31.2% |
| NATGAS | 2021-11-23 | [Supply Outages, Weather Forecasts Keep Global Natural Gas Prices Strong -- LNG Recap](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44230-supply-outages-weather-forecasts-keep-global-natural-gas-prices-strong-lng-recap.md) | -5.5% | -18.6% |
| NATGAS | 2026-04-24 | [Middle East crisis disrupts international natural gas markets and delays global LNG supply wave - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19907-middle-east-crisis-disrupts-international-natural-gas-markets-and-delays-global.md) | +2.7% | +17.0% |
| UREA | 2025-06-20 | [Israel-Iran conflict leads to urea supply woes; global fob values rally by 25-30%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24539-israel-iran-conflict-leads-to-urea-supply-woes-global-fob-values-rally-by-25-30.md) | +2.1% | +13.0% |
| UREA | 2021-11-23 | [Supply Outages, Weather Forecasts Keep Global Natural Gas Prices Strong -- LNG Recap](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44230-supply-outages-weather-forecasts-keep-global-natural-gas-prices-strong-lng-recap.md) | +6.3% | -0.2% |
| UREA | 2026-04-30 | [From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10153-from-surplus-to-strain-iran-war-and-el-nino-threaten-global-rice-supply-the.md) | -10.0% | -17.6% |

## Sources

- forbesmiddleeast.com: https://forbesmiddleeast.com/industry/energy/global-lng-supply-is-expected-to-fall-by-3-in-2026-steepest-yearly-decline-on-record

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.