# ICAR Raises Estimate of Russian Grain Exports This Season Under Stress Scenario to 36.5 Million Tonnes

> Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR) cut its total 2026/27 grain export forecast to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, with wheat trimmed to 39.5 million from 42 million. Under its stress scenario, however, ICAR raised the total grain export estimate to 36.5 million tonnes from 35 million, and wheat to 30 million from 29 million.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T19:41:11.385Z
- Category: trade · region Russia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78361-icar-raises-estimate-of-russian-grain-exports-this-season-under-stress-scenario
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A lower base forecast trims expected Russian supply to world buyers, but the higher stress-case figure shows exports are holding up despite logistics and shipping difficulties. Net effect is mildly supportive for wheat prices and for feed grain importers relying on Black Sea origin.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-03-20 | [Ukraine grain exports top 30 million tonnes \| World-grain.com \| March 20, 2017 13:34 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71838-ukraine-grain-exports-top-30-million-tonnes-world-grain-com-march-20-2017-13-34.md) | -2.8% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-20 | [Ukrainian seaports cut grain export by more than 6 mln tonnes in 2020](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48981-ukrainian-seaports-cut-grain-export-by-more-than-6-mln-tonnes-in-2020.md) | +4.0% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-09 | [Russian Grain Exports Increase 26% from Last Year - Russia Business Today](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62392-russian-grain-exports-increase-26-from-last-year-russia-business-today.md) | +8.3% | +4.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-25 | [Russian Grain Exports Slowed](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62870-russian-grain-exports-slowed.md) | +1.8% | +8.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-29 | [Wheat jumps after Russia says Cargill to stop grain exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5078-wheat-jumps-after-russia-says-cargill-to-stop-grain-exports.md) | -10.7% | -14.2% |
| CORN | 2025-06-25 | [News - Ukraine has exported 40 million tonnes of grain since the beginning of the season - Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14198-news-ukraine-has-exported-40-million-tonnes-of-grain-since-the-beginning-of-the.md) | +2.3% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2021-12-07 | [Exports of grain exceeded 26 million tons. - UBN](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14527-exports-of-grain-exceeded-26-million-tons-ubn.md) | -0.5% | -0.0% |
| CORN | 2023-02-01 | [Over 19 mln tonnes of Ukrainian foods exported under Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14417-over-19-mln-tonnes-of-ukrainian-foods-exported-under-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | +1.2% | -4.9% |

## Sources

- rawmart.ru: https://rawmart.ru/news/ikar-povysil-otsenku-eksporta-zerna-iz-rf-v-etom-sezone-pri-stressovom-stsenarii-mw0rtsw6

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.