# Country risk exceeds 800 points and the market now awaits the US elections - El Cronista

> Argentina's JP Morgan country risk index rose 2.3% to 805 basis points, its highest since October 2025, and was up 180 points in October. The move follows Brazil's post-election selloff, with the real falling sharply after Lula's re-election, alongside a 10-year US Treasury yield near 4.9% and expectations of another Fed hike in December.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T18:58:19.343Z
- Category: macro · region Argentina · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78337-country-risk-exceeds-800-points-and-the-market-now-awaits-the-us-elections-el
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Higher emerging-market risk premia raise borrowing costs and can weaken Latin American currencies, which feeds into feed-ingredient importers' costs and Brazilian export competitiveness. The direct effect on grain and oilseed prices is limited.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-07-29 | [Rabobank flags BRL downside as rate differentials narrow and fiscal risks rise ahead of 2026 elections - VT Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18565-rabobank-flags-brl-downside-as-rate-differentials-narrow-and-fiscal-risks-rise.md) | -0.0% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2020-03-19 | [A global rush into the US dollar is driving extreme market moves and a temporary shortage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6274-a-global-rush-into-the-us-dollar-is-driving-extreme-market-moves-and-a.md) | -1.1% | +2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-12 | [Brazilian market has firm prices and new area cut in the summer corn crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13549-brazilian-market-has-firm-prices-and-new-area-cut-in-the-summer-corn-crop.md) | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2023-10-31 | [USDBRL should reflect monetary policy decisions from Brazil, the US, Japan, and England and data for the US and China](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33832-usdbrl-should-reflect-monetary-policy-decisions-from-brazil-the-us-japan-and.md) | -2.9% | -2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-23 | [Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28517-dollar-rises-more-than-1-at-the-start-of-a-week-marked-by-inflation-data-in.md) | -1.1% | +3.9% |

## Sources

- cronista.com: https://www.cronista.com/finanzas-mercados/el-riesgo-pais-supero-los-800-puntos-y-ahora-el-mercado-espera-por-las-elecciones-en-eeuu/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.