# US natural gas futures start year lower on mild weather outlook

> U.S. natural gas futures started 2026 lower, with February delivery down 2.6% to $3.59/mmBtu. Forecasts called for warmer-than-normal temperatures nationwide through January 16, and heating degree days were falling. Analysts also cited concerns about a potential global LNG supply glut.

- Date: 2026-01-02 · published 2026-01-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7832-us-natural-gas-futures-start-year-lower-on-mild-weather-outlook
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

## Why it matters

Warmer forecasts cut heating demand, and talk of excess LNG supply limits export-driven support for U.S. prices. Together these point to softer near-term gas prices.

## Read by commodity

- NATGAS: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2026-01-06 | 5 | -31.6% | -3.8 | Started 2026 down 2.6% on warmer-than-normal outlook, falling heating degree days and LNG glut concerns. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2026-01-05 | [U.S. Natural Gas Extends Losses on Milder Weather Outlook - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7828-u-s-natural-gas-extends-losses-on-milder-weather-outlook-wsj.md) | -20.7% | -0.8% |
| NATGAS | 2018-02-01 | [Mild Weather Dims Natural Gas ETF Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7447-mild-weather-dims-natural-gas-etf-outlook.md) | -14.0% | -15.1% |
| NATGAS | 2025-01-21 | [U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Milder February Outlook - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6343-u-s-natural-gas-futures-fall-on-milder-february-outlook-wsj.md) | -40.6% | -18.8% |
| NATGAS | 2020-11-03 | [US natural gas futures fall on milder weather - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50350-us-natural-gas-futures-fall-on-milder-weather-markets-business-recorder.md) | -12.5% | -8.0% |
| NATGAS | 2025-01-27 | [As Weather Outlooks Erase Cold, Natural Gas Futures Tank on Weaker Demand Expectations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26693-as-weather-outlooks-erase-cold-natural-gas-futures-tank-on-weaker-demand.md) | -24.1% | -0.2% |

## Sources

- bairdmaritime.com: https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/gas/us-natural-gas-futures-start-year-lower-on-mild-weather-outlook

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.