# Russia keeps its wheat at home, and the USDA still counts on it leaving

> Russian wheat exports have lagged sharply, with only 6.4 Mt shipped from July to September against an average of 12.35 Mt. The USDA has cut its Russian export forecast from 47.5 to 40 Mt over three reports, pushing Russian ending stocks to 19.09 Mt, the highest in over two decades.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T18:41:06.539Z
- Category: report · region Russia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78319-russia-keeps-its-wheat-at-home-and-the-usda-still-counts-on-it-leaving
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The USDA export forecast looks too high given slow shipments, so a further cut in the November report could tighten the world wheat balance for importers. Until then, large Russian stocks cap global wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- KWHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-12 | [The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36464-the-usda-raised-its-consumption-forecast-and-lowered-its-estimate-of-wheat.md) | +9.0% | -1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2020-11-10 | [USDA Lowers Corn, Soybean and Wheat Ending Stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50091-usda-lowers-corn-soybean-and-wheat-ending-stocks.md) | -2.8% | +2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-02-22 | [Global wheat shipments withstood the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14326-global-wheat-shipments-withstood-the-shock-of-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine.md) | -4.3% | -4.8% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-01 | [USDA leaves U.S. soybean, corn, wheat ending stocks unchanged](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20192-usda-leaves-u-s-soybean-corn-wheat-ending-stocks-unchanged.md) | -2.5% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-12 | [USDA Reports Confirm the Tight U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36446-usda-reports-confirm-the-tight-u-s-wheat-balance-sheet.md) | +9.0% | -1.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-04-12 | [The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36464-the-usda-raised-its-consumption-forecast-and-lowered-its-estimate-of-wheat.md) | +1.5% | +4.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-05-19 | [USDA: Wheat Stocks Drop, But Prices Hold](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53171-usda-wheat-stocks-drop-but-prices-hold.md) | +0.2% | -1.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-08-19 | [Global wheat exports update: Russia’s wheat exports rise to 732,000 tonnes, while US exports forecast at 875 million bushels - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14185-global-wheat-exports-update-russia-s-wheat-exports-rise-to-732-000-tonnes-while.md) | -1.9% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- agramarket.fr: https://www.agramarket.fr/notes/russian-wheat-stays-home

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.