# Market Watch: Nymex Falls As Demand Outlook Softens | Energy Intelligence

> February Nymex gas futures fell 9.5 cents to $3.523/mmBtu, down 11.6% since the January contract expired. Forecasts turned materially warmer, with temperatures expected to average about 50°F and no major cold shots through January 19. Analysts estimated the revision could remove about 35 Bcf of demand from a 15-day outlook.

- Date: 2026-01-05 · published 2026-01-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7830-market-watch-nymex-falls-as-demand-outlook-softens-energy-intelligence
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

## Why it matters

Warmer forecasts cut projected heating demand and reduce the risk of freeze-offs, which lowers near-term gas price expectations.

## Read by commodity

- NATGAS: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2026-01-06 | 5 | -31.6% | -3.8 | Forecasts turned materially warmer with no major cold through Jan 19, removing about 35 Bcf of demand and leaving Feb Nymex down 11.6% since the January contract expired. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2016-11-08 | [Market Watch \| Energy Intelligence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/74031-market-watch-energy-intelligence.md) | -3.5% | +37.2% |
| NATGAS | 2016-10-21 | [Mild Weather Pushes US Natgas Lower for Week \| Energy Intelligence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10115-mild-weather-pushes-us-natgas-lower-for-week-energy-intelligence.md) | -12.4% | -19.1% |
| NATGAS | 2023-01-03 | [Warm Winter Weather Pushes US Natgas Prices Lower \| Energy Intelligence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9186-warm-winter-weather-pushes-us-natgas-prices-lower-energy-intelligence.md) | -4.8% | -32.8% |
| NATGAS | 2020-09-14 | [Natural Gas Market is Poised for a Wild Ride this Fall - Burton Energy Group](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8357-natural-gas-market-is-poised-for-a-wild-ride-this-fall-burton-energy-group.md) | -14.6% | +18.7% |
| NATGAS | 2020-01-28 | [Weekly Energy Market Situation, January 27, 2020 - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12372-weekly-energy-market-situation-january-27-2020-fuels-market-news.md) | -5.4% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- energyintel.com: https://www.energyintel.com/0000019b-7f36-da2f-abbb-ff3e9b310008

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.