# The risk is not El Niño. It is being caught off guard by it

> An industry opinion column from the International Fresh Produce Association argues that the main risk for fresh produce is failing to anticipate severe weather. It cites a USDA FAS report from October 13, 2026, which said NOAA projects a possibly very strong El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T18:12:41.720Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78138-the-risk-is-not-el-nino-it-is-being-caught-off-guard-by-it
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

The column focuses on fresh produce rather than feed grains, so its direct price impact on feed ingredients is limited, though a strong El Niño in the coming months could eventually affect Brazilian crops.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -3.4% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2018-10-10 | [El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62471-el-nino-set-to-return-before-end-of-the-year-kemp.md) | +4.0% | +4.0% |
| CORN | 2017-05-19 | [El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. \| Climate Change](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change.md) | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.9% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2023-02-15 | [Brazil's corn planting is not the slowest ever, but yield risks are elevated  \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13663-brazil-s-corn-planting-is-not-the-slowest-ever-but-yield-risks-are-elevated.md) | -0.3% | -5.3% |
| SOY | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -1.7% | +13.5% |
| SOY | 2018-10-10 | [El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62471-el-nino-set-to-return-before-end-of-the-year-kemp.md) | +2.5% | +1.0% |
| SOY | 2017-05-19 | [El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. \| Climate Change](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change.md) | -0.6% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- noticiasagricolas.com.br: https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/artigos/artigos-geral/430747-o-risco-nao-e-o-el-nino-e-ser-surpreendido-por-ele.html
- revistacultivar.com.br: https://www.revistacultivar.com.br/artigos/o-risco-nao-e-o-el-nino-mas-ser-surpreendido-por-ele

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.