# Capacity Cuts Accelerate but Supply-Strong, Demand-Weak Picture Unchanged: Can the Cycle-Reversal Logic Pay Off?

> China's hog sector is cutting capacity faster: sows in the national breeding herd stood at 36.02 million at the end of Q3, down 10.7% year on year, with a 4.7% quarterly drop, the largest on record. Spot hog prices fell to about 9 yuan/kg on November 3, leaving integrated farms losing over 300 yuan per head, while live cattle prices rose 15.9% year on year in Shandong.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T16:02:42.981Z
- Category: market · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78068-capacity-cuts-accelerate-but-supply-strong-demand-weak-picture-unchanged-can
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md)

## Why it matters

Shrinking sow numbers and tighter beef supply could eventually lift animal protein prices and support demand for feed, but near-term weak hog prices keep producers cutting costs, which weighs on feed ingredient demand. Analysts expect the cycle to turn only after further capacity reduction.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bearish ▼
- LCATTLE: bullish ▲

## Sources

- k.sina.cn: https://k.sina.cn/article_5953189932_162d6782c067052ubw.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.