# Weather and Commodities: Winter Outlook Hinges on El-Niño | BloombergNEF

> BloombergNEF forecasts a broadly mild Northern Hemisphere winter driven by a record-strength El Niño, with milder temperatures and wetter weather in the US south and a mild outlook for Europe. A late-October weakening of Arctic stratospheric winds raises the risk of sudden cold outbreaks.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T16:01:23.254Z
- Category: weather · region US and Europe · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/78066-weather-and-commodities-winter-outlook-hinges-on-el-nino-bloombergnef
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

## Why it matters

Milder winter weather would cut heating demand and natural gas storage draws, easing gas and power price pressure. Cold snaps remain an upside risk to that outlook.

## Read by commodity

- NATGAS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2026-02-02 | [US Natural Gas Plunges by Most in About 30 Years on Warm Weather - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20798-us-natural-gas-plunges-by-most-in-about-30-years-on-warm-weather-bloomberg.md) | -30.8% | -46.8% |
| NATGAS | 2025-01-27 | [As Weather Outlooks Erase Cold, Natural Gas Futures Tank on Weaker Demand Expectations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26693-as-weather-outlooks-erase-cold-natural-gas-futures-tank-on-weaker-demand.md) | -24.1% | -0.2% |
| NATGAS | 2026-01-05 | [U.S. Natural Gas Extends Losses on Milder Weather Outlook - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7828-u-s-natural-gas-extends-losses-on-milder-weather-outlook-wsj.md) | -20.7% | -0.8% |
| NATGAS | 2018-02-01 | [Mild Weather Dims Natural Gas ETF Outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7447-mild-weather-dims-natural-gas-etf-outlook.md) | -14.0% | -15.1% |
| NATGAS | 2026-07-10 | [Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Cooler Weather and Ample Supplies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8664-nat-gas-prices-fall-on-cooler-weather-and-ample-supplies.md) | -8.0% | -15.2% |

## Sources

- about.bnef.com: https://about.bnef.com/insights/nature-and-agriculture/weather-and-commodities-winter-outlook-hinges-on-el-nino/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.