# Capacity Cuts Accelerate but Oversupply and Weak Demand Persist; Can the Cycle Reversal Thesis Deliver?

> Chinese hog spot prices stayed weak on November 3, with national outside-three-元 averages near 9 yuan/kg and industry losses above 300 yuan per head. Official data showed sow inventory at 36.02 million head, down 10.7% year on year, the first drop below the normal holding level. Brokers including Guojin and Guosheng said low prices and policy-driven capacity cuts could eventually reverse the cycle, while short-term prices stay low; Shandong live cattle averaged 31.34 yuan/kg in October, up 15.9% year on year.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T15:18:46.556Z
- Category: market · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77985-capacity-cuts-accelerate-but-oversupply-and-weak-demand-persist-can-the-cycle
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md)

## Why it matters

Persistent hog losses and sow culling point to lower Chinese hog output later, but near-term oversupply limits feed demand gains. Rising cattle prices from tighter import quotas could support beef-related demand.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bearish ▼
- LCATTLE: bullish ▲

## Sources

- 163.com: https://www.163.com/dy/article/LAQ8CJS00550WHYR.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.