# El Niño Is Already Cutting Costa Rica's Coffee Harvest by Up to 15%

> Costa Rica's coffee institute Icafé now expects the coffee harvest to be 10% to 15% smaller than first estimated due to irregular El Niño rains and heat. The Central Bank cut its 2026 and 2027 farm-sector outlook, citing lower coffee, onion and sugarcane output and higher fertilizer prices.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T15:16:53.184Z
- Category: weather · region Central America · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77970-el-nino-is-already-cutting-costa-rica-s-coffee-harvest-by-up-to-15
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Feed buyers see limited direct effect since coffee is not a feed input, but the warning on pasture, water and livestock productivity plus higher fertilizer costs in Central America is a small supply-side signal for regional feed and cattle costs.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-10-02 | [Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12955-record-el-nino-behind-historic-rains-stalling-harvest-across-the-u-s-agweb.md) | -1.6% | -7.0% |
| CORN | 2023-06-02 | [El Niño already affects climate in corn producing areas - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13643-el-nino-already-affects-climate-in-corn-producing-areas-revista-cultivar.md) | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| CORN | 2021-06-10 | [Breakage of the corn harvest is already certain in important producing centers - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46411-breakage-of-the-corn-harvest-is-already-certain-in-important-producing-centers.md) | -1.8% | -2.6% |
| CORN | 2017-10-30 | [Delay in soybean planting already compromises corn harvest in Goiás - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68305-delay-in-soybean-planting-already-compromises-corn-harvest-in-goias-revista.md) | -0.3% | -5.5% |
| CORN | 2024-04-18 | [Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30650-goodbye-el-nino-hello-la-nina-the-big-transition-to-la-nina-is-already-underway.md) | -0.4% | +4.0% |
| SOY | 2026-10-02 | [Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12955-record-el-nino-behind-historic-rains-stalling-harvest-across-the-u-s-agweb.md) | +0.3% | -5.0% |
| SOY | 2017-10-30 | [Delay in soybean planting already compromises corn harvest in Goiás - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68305-delay-in-soybean-planting-already-compromises-corn-harvest-in-goias-revista.md) | +0.2% | +2.1% |
| SOY | 2023-05-25 | [El Nino seen posing larger risk for robusta coffee, less to arabica \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35869-el-nino-seen-posing-larger-risk-for-robusta-coffee-less-to-arabica-reuters.md) | +0.4% | +12.8% |

## Sources

- ticotimes.net: https://ticotimes.net/2026/11/03/costa-rica-el-nino-coffee-harvest-farm-losses

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.