# JPMorgan Warns That a Banxico Rate Cut Could Trigger a 'Disorderly' Peso Fall

> JPMorgan analysts warned that a Banco de México rate cut this week could trigger a disorderly sell-off in the peso, which they estimate could fall about 5% to around 19.50 per dollar. Markets price roughly a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at Thursday's meeting, but most economists, including JPMorgan, expect rates to hold at 6.5%.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T15:10:50.441Z
- Category: macro · region Mexico · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77879-jpmorgan-warns-that-a-banxico-rate-cut-could-trigger-a-disorderly-peso-fall
- Commodities: [Mexican Peso (MXN per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDMXN.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp peso depreciation would raise the local cost of dollar-priced feed imports into Mexico, including corn, soybean meal and DDGS. The risk is a sudden repricing that would hit import-dependent feed margins.

## Read by commodity

- USDMXN: bullish ▲

## Sources

- in.marketscreener.com: https://in.marketscreener.com/news/mexican-rate-cut-could-trigger-disorderly-peso-drop-jpmorgan-warns-ce785fded888f523
- eleconomista.com.mx: https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/sectorfinanciero/jpmorgan-advierte-baja-tasas-banxico-provocar-caida-desordenada-peso-20261103-841897.html
- reforma.com: https://www.reforma.com/baja-de-tasas-causaria-caida-desordenada-del-peso-jpmorgan/ar3307175

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.