# IKAR Cuts Base Estimate of Russia's 2026/27 Wheat Export Potential to 39.5 Million Tonnes

> Russian agency IKAR lowered its base estimate of Russia's 2026/27 wheat export potential to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million, and total grain export potential to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million. IKAR head Dmitry Rylko said logistical difficulties mean the remaining season will not allow exporting what was initially possible. Grain exports have shifted mainly to Baltic ports after near-total closure of southern ports since mid-August.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T13:54:13.633Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77817-ikar-cuts-base-estimate-of-russia-s-2026-27-wheat-export-potential-to-39-5
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller Russian export pool tightens global wheat supply and supports world wheat prices, while also benefiting competitors and raising feed grain costs for buyers.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲
- OCEANFRT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2020-12-10 | [U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49692-u-s-wheat-export-basis-to-remain-high-until-march-2021-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | -1.5% | +4.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-10 | [Rouen's weekly wheat exports drop to 39,700 tonnes - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37326-rouen-s-weekly-wheat-exports-drop-to-39-700-tonnes-fastmarkets.md) | -2.5% | -9.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-28 | [Russia Taps Smaller Ports to Keep Up Record Wheat Export Pace - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64375-russia-taps-smaller-ports-to-keep-up-record-wheat-export-pace-bloomberg.md) | -4.2% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2025-06-13 | [Nibulon to Export 1 Million Tons of Grain Via Black Sea Port of Chornomorsk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14200-nibulon-to-export-1-million-tons-of-grain-via-black-sea-port-of-chornomorsk.md) | +1.4% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-25 | [Russia’s wheat exports to Egypt: Why shipping costs are rising despite lower prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18113-russia-s-wheat-exports-to-egypt-why-shipping-costs-are-rising-despite-lower.md) | +1.7% | +4.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-12-10 | [U.S. Wheat Export Basis to Remain High Until March 2021 - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49692-u-s-wheat-export-basis-to-remain-high-until-march-2021-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +2.0% | +8.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-06-24 | [Limited Elevation Capacity Supports Gulf Wheat Export Basis - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52645-limited-elevation-capacity-supports-gulf-wheat-export-basis-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +0.1% | +3.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-09-02 | [Secondary Rail Rates, Tight Elevation Capacity Continue to Support Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51171-secondary-rail-rates-tight-elevation-capacity-continue-to-support-wheat-export.md) | -2.1% | +5.4% |

## Sources

- ru.themoscowtimes.com: https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/11/03/ikar-snizil-bazovuyu-otsenku-potentsiala-eksporta-pshenitsy-iz-rf-v-sezone-202627-do-395-mln-t-a210418

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.